Red Sox vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, May 12

Betting odds, pick and prediction for Monday's matchup between the Boston Red Sox and the Detroit Tigers.

Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman is a great prop target in the Red Sox's series opener against the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday. / Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers open their first series of the 2025 season on Monday, May 12.

Detroit sits atop the AL Central with a 22-15 record, but enters as the underdog against a Red Sox club that’s 22-20 and  has won its last three series. 

The Sox deploy veteran right-hander Tanner Houck, who has struggled out of the gate with an 0-2 record and a 6.10 ERA. He’ll face off against rookie Jackson Jobe, who’s off to a steady start at 2-0 with a 4.88 ERA and will look to keep his momentum going against a high-powered Boston lineup.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Monday’s matchup.

Red Sox vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Boston Red Sox (+136)
• Detroit Tigers (-164)

Moneyline

• Boston Red Sox (-120)
• Detroit Tigers (+102)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-105)
• Under 8.5 (-115)

Red Sox vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

• Away Team: Tanner Houck (0-2, 6.10 ERA)
• Home Team: Jackson Jobe (2-0, 4.88 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Tigers How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 12
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Comerica Park
• How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network, NESN
• Red Sox Record: 22-20
• Tigers Record: 26-15

Red Sox vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bets

Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bet

• Alex Bregman 2+ Total Bases 

It’s Alex Bregman’s world and the Red Sox have been living in it. The star third baseman’s three-year deal at $120 million is looking like a bargain so far as the reigning Gold Glove winner is leading the Sox with a .311/.384/.567 slash line and is tied for No. 10 overall in WAR amongst MLB.

Jobe has his work cut out for him as Bregman is smashing a .297 average with nine home runs and 27 RBIs against right-handed pitching in 41 games. That’s aside from his dominance on the road that’s pumped out a .326 average in contrast to .298 at Fenway Park. 

Bregman also leads the Red Sox in extra base hits with 15 doubles. He’s due for more on Monday as he went hitless on Sunday, but has collected extra bases in two of his last five games. 

Red Sox vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

While I think Houck is due for positive regression, the Tigers offer too much value on the moneyline here to ignore. Boston has been favored in seven of its last 10 games and has performed inconsistently in those games with a record of 3-4. 

Houck has been able to generate ground balls and he’s getting hitters to chase his pitches at an efficient rate, but when they do make contact, he’s getting hit hard. Houck is rolling with his highest hard hit rate of his career at 41.8%, which ranks him in the bottom 10% of MLB per Statcast.

Jobe hasn’t caught a groove with recording strikeouts, though his fastball velocity has been impressive and he holds an xERA of 4.25 through his first six starts as a member of the Tigers starting rotation.

Detroit is the slightly better offensive club with a team slash line of .255/.330/.415 as Spencer Torkleson and Kerry Carpenter are hitting the leather off the baseball both with an xSLG north of .560 according to Statcast.

The Tigers lost their last two games to the Rangers by a margin of 16-4, so I’m backing them to rebound behind the promising rookie despite the disadvantage in experience. 

Pick: Tigers (+102 at FanDuel)

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