Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, July 28

Sean Treppedi | Jul 28, 2025

Ceddanne Rafaela's electric base running has helped the Sox lead the game in doubles. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Red Sox enter Monday’s matchup riding high after taking two of three from the Dodgers, with their offense heating up and a Wild Card spot still in their control. 

Minnesota, meanwhile, are trending in the opposite direction, having lost seven of their last ten and struggling to generate consistent offense. 

Richard Fitts (1-4, 4.86 ERA) gets the start for Boston, looking to rebound from a tough outing against the Phillies. 

Opposing him is Simeon Woods Richardson (5-4, 4.14 ERA), who’s shown flashes of promise but labored through his last start with five walks in just three innings.

Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
• Twins +1.5 (-182)

Moneyline

• Red Sox (-108)
• Twins (-108)

Total

• Over 9 (-122)
• Under 9 (+100)

Red Sox vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

• Red Sox: Richard Fitts (1-4, 4.86 ERA)
• Twins: Simeon Woods Richardson (5-4, 4.14 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Twins How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 28, 2025
• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Target Field
• How to Watch (TV): Twins.TV, NESN
• Red Sox Record: 57-50
• Twins Record: 50-55

Red Sox vs. Twins Prop Bet

• Ceddanne Rafaela Over 0.5 Runs (+125 at FanDuel)

Rafaela continues to benefit from hitting ahead of Boston’s biggest bats. With the Red Sox offense rolling and Richardson having a recent track record of struggling to avoid traffic on the bases, Rafaela should have multiple chances to cross the plate given his speed to score from first on a double and the instincts to capitalize on Minnesota’s defensive lapses.

He’s been one of baseball’s elite base runners this season with a +3 baserunning value that puts him within the top 92 percentile while posting a 90 percentile worthy sprint speed on Statcast.

Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

This Boston lineup has some gravitas to it, leading the league in doubles, especially on the road where they’ve maintained aggressive approaches early in counts. Although Fitts hasn’t been dominant, his 3.80 ERA on the road is serviceable enough to like Boston at -108.

The Twins, by contrast, have scored three runs or fewer in four straight games and continue to underwhelm offensively with a .241/.312/.399 slash line. They’re top-heavy and rely on sporadic power from Byron Buxton and Max Kepler, which gives Boston’s top-10 offense the upside in a pick’em.

Pick: Red Sox (-108 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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