Reds vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, June 11

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Cincinnati Reds-Cleveland Guardians matchup on June 11.

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo is an interesting prop target on Wednesday. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Reds can pull off a sweep of the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday afternoon after they took Tuesday’s matchup, 1-0, behind a complete game shutout from Andrew Abbott.

Now, the Reds send another lefty to the hill – Nick Lodolo – in the series finale. Logan Allen will get the ball for the Guardians, who are slipping fast in the AL Central division.

Cleveland is now nine games back of the first-place Detroit Tigers, and it has dropped six of its last 10 games. The Guardians trail the Minnesota Twins by a game in the division, but as they inch closer to .500, they’re going to be in a tough spot to make the playoffs in the AL. 

Oddsmakers have the Guardians set as slight favorites in what is essentially a pick’em in this series finale.

Let’s examine the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Wednesday’s action. 

Reds vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Reds -1.5 (+150)
• Guardians +1.5 (-184)

Moneyline

• Reds: -108
• Guardians: -112

Total

• 8 (Over -119/Under -102)

Reds vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

• Cincinnati: Nick Lodolo (4-4, 3.21 ERA)
• Cleveland: Logan Allen (3-4, 4.42 ERA)

Reds vs. Guardians How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, June 11
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Progressive Field
• How to Watch (TV):
• Reds record: 35-33
• Guardians record: 34-32

Reds vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Reds Best MLB Prop Bet

• Nick Lodolo UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)

While Lodolo has been really solid for the Reds this season, he has only struck out 64 batters in 75.2 innings of work. The lefty has five or fewer strikeouts in eight of his 13 outings in 2025. 

Now, he’s taking on a Cleveland team that is 11th in MLB in K’s per game, striking out just 8.11 times per night. Lodolo ranks in just the 39th percentile in MLB in strikeout percentage and he’s in the 30th percentile in whiff percentage this season. 

I think he’s worth fading at this number on Wednesday afternoon. 

Reds vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

While neither of these pitchers has been lights out in the 2025 season, both of these offenses have struggled mightily against lefties. Here’s a look at some of their numbers so far: 

Batting Average vs. Lefties

• Reds: 24th (.215)
• Guardians: 23rd (.218)

OPS vs. Lefties

• Reds: 22nd (.636)
• Guardians: 29th (.595)

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) vs. Lefties

• Reds: 23rd (74)
• Guardians: 26th (69)

Now, Allen ranks in just the 20th percentile in expected ERA this season while Lodolo is in the 36th percentile, so there could be some volatility here. 

However, the Reds just shut out the Guardians with a lefty (Abbott) on the mound, and these teams have both hit the UNDER in the majority of their games, with Cincy posting the better UNDER record at 38-27-3. 

This total is a little too high for my liking on Wednesday. 

Pick: UNDER 8 (-102 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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