Rockets Disrespected in Opening Playoff Series Odds vs. Warriors

Are the Rockets undervalued in this first-round matchup?

Houston Rockets head coach Ime Udoka led his team to 52 wins in the regular season. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Ime Udoka’s Houston Rockets earned the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference this season by winning 52 games – the fourth-most in the NBA.

That’s not an easy task, yet Houston isn’t getting much respect in the odds to advance in the NBA playoffs.

After the Golden State Warriors beat the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday night to secure the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference, oddsmaker set the Warriors as sizable favorites in the odds to win their series with Houston. 

Warriors vs. Rockets Series Odds

• Warriors: -200
• Rockets: +165

Based on these odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, Golden State has a 66.7 percent chance to advance in this series (according to implied probability). Houston, which won the last meeting between these teams in the regular season, has just a 37.74 percent chance to advance. 

What may be more disrespectful to what Houston accomplished this season is how oddsmakers view the Rockets in the correct series score market. The Warriors have better odds to win the series in six games than Houston does in seven, and Golden State has the next three outcomes in the odds (to win in five, seven and four) before Houston.

Warriors vs. Rockets Correct Score Odds

• Warriors in 6: +280
• Rockets in 7: +475
• Warriors in 5: +475
• Warriors in 7: +550
• Warriors in 4: +650
• Rockets in 6: +900
• Rockets in 5: +900
• Rockets in 4: +1900

Now, there’s a reason why the Warriors are favored. They have four-time champions Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, as well as All-Star Jimmy Butler leading the way. However, Golden State doesn’t have a ton of depth, and that was shown in the win over Memphis on Tuesday.

The Warriors needed 75 combined points from Curry and Butler to escape with a five-point win. 

During the regular season, the Warriors and Rockets matched up five times, but only twice after the Butler trade. Golden State went 3-2 overall and split the last two meetings between these teams. 

Houston, which held Golden State under 110 points in four of the five games, kept Curry in check in the final meeting of the regular season, holding him to just three points. This season, when Golden State scores 110 points or more, it is 39-12. When it doesn’t, it is just 9-22. 

Because of their championship experience, the Warriors likely deserve to be favored in this series. But, setting them at -200 when they don’t even have home court certainly feels like a little bit of disrespect for the season that the Rockets put together.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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