Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Orioles in Measuring Stick Game vs. Phillies)

Reed Wallach | Jun 14, 2024

Jun 10, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA;Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2), first base Ryan Mountcastle (6) and teammates celebrates after they beat the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports / Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Weekend series begin across Major League Baseball, including a potential World Series preview between the Phillies and Orioles in Baltimore.

The Philles will start Ranger Suarez in hopes of building on his Cy Young campaign, but it will be tough to keep up with the vaunted Orioles lineup with an MVP candidate in Gunnar Henderson.

That's the headliner, but every team is taking the field on Friday, here's how I'm betting the full card:

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (-120)

Kyle Gibson is an easy fade candidate on the road against the Cubs. The Cardinals right hander has been destroyed by hard contact, 27th percentile in hard-hit percentage per MLBStatcast, and has an xERA that shows regression is looming. 

Gibson has an ERA of 3.76 with an xERA of 5.07, meaning he is getting very lucky with the ball in play. 

At a cheap price, I’m happy to fade the Cardinals on the road. 

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (+140)

The Yankees start outstanding rookie Luis Gil on Friday night against its bitter rival Red Sox, and I’ll take the home underdog to show out at Fenway Park. 

Gil has been great to start the year, punching out 30% of batters he’s faced with a 2.04 ERA, but he is prone to walks (nearly 12%). He’ll face a Boston team that is humming at the dish, second in OPS in the month of June. 

Meanwhile, Bryan Bello of the Red Sox may be ripe to the task of keeping down the explosive Yankees lineup, rating in the 92nd percentile in terms of ground ball percentage. It’s worth noting at Fenway Park, he is pitching far better, posting a 3.68 ERA vs. a 5.45 ERA on the road. 

Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nationals (-165)

MacKenzie Gore continues to shine for the Nationals, and I’ll trust him to get the Nats back on its winning ways after losing last time out. 

Gore is striking out a career best 27% of betters while limiting his walk rate to seven percent, a career low. With a 3.44 ERA, he should have little issue controlling a Marlins lineup that is bottom three in OPS on the year. 

Phillies vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-130)

The Phillies and Orioles meet in a battle of two powerhouses in each respective league. 

With that in mind, I’m going to trust the small home favorite, who is in a favorable matchup. 

The Orioles are third in OPS against lefties, and while Ranger Suarez has put up Cy Young number to date, I wonder if he is starting to slow down, after leaving due to injury two starts ago (two innings) and failing to pitch six full innings in his next start. 

Guardians vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (+120)

The Guardians are 13-10 as underdogs this season and are the better team than the Blue Jays, tops in the AL Central and ranks 11th in OPS on the year. 

The offense gets to face an erratic Kevin Gausman, who is striking out only 23% of batters and has an ERA of 4.00, lucky considering his xERA sits at a dismal 5.14. 

Padres vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-110)

Sean Manaea has produced for the Mets this season, but he can’t go long into games, pitching six or more innings in only three of 12 starts this season. 

That means there will be a ton of pressure on the Mets bullpen that has the sixth highest ERA in the big leagues, and enough for me to back the Padres at a coin flip price. 

Rays vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-220)

It may seem nerve wracking to back the Braves given its dismal hitting stretch, batting .215 in the month of June, but the team has a massive edge on the mound. 

Chris Sale has been stellar this season, healthy and striking out 31% of batters he has faced this season while walking only four percent. 

The Rays are 24th in OPS in the month of June, so I’m not bullish on the lineup to find answers against the left hander, nor Zack Littell, who has allowed nine earned runs in his last two starts, starting to show signs of slowing down after a hot start to the year. 

Tigers vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tigers (-105)

Tarik Skubal is the AL Cy Young favorite, and we get a great price to back him against an Astros team that has underwhelmed all season. 

Houston is right around the league average in OPS against left handers this season, and Skubal has been on a tear. I believe the Tigers ace that has a 1.92 ERA with a 31% strikeout rate can keep it rolling on the road against an overrated Astros team. 

Reds vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (+125)

Two hard throwing right handers meet in Milwaukee when Hunter Greene of the Reds faces off against Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta. 

I don’t see much of a difference between either pitcher, Greene actually has a far better xERA of 3.03 vs. Peralta’s 3.83, and the Reds are top 10 in OPS in the month of June. 

I’ll take a shot on the underdog Reds on Friday night. 

Athletics vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-180)

Minnesota continues to get production out of Simeon Woods Richardson, who has posted an ERA of 2.84 on the year. 

The Twins should have little issue navigating an A’s team that is bottom five in ERA as a unit.

Pirates vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (-110)

This is a lot of respect for the Pirates, even against the lowly Rockies. 

I’ll take a shot fading Pittsburgh, who is starting opener Luis Ortiz, who has a ton of concerning metrics, including an 18%/10% strikeout-to-walk rate with an xERA that is incredibly high relative to his actual era, 2.60 vs. 3.58. 

White Sox vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-180)

I think we are getting a break in the price at fading the White Sox after Chris Flexen’s strong two starts that has amounted to a 2.70 ERA. 

However, no team is hitting better than the Diamondbacks in the month of June, and I’ll trust the home team to score a win. 

Royals vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (-155)

Los Angeles has the best OPS against left handed pitching, which can make this a daunting ask for Cole Ragans of the Royals. 

The Dodgers firepower can standout in this matchup with Gavin Stone in line to start for the team in hopes of limiting a solid Royals team at the plate. Stone has a 2.93 ERA while doing a fine job of limiting hard contact, 88th percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage. 

Rangers vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rangers (+120)

The Mariners are the worst hitting team against left handed pitching, batting .210, I’ll fade the team at home against a Rangers team fresh off a series win against the Dodgers and starting southpaw Andrew Heaney. 

Angels vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants (-140)

San Francisco is top 10 in OPS against lefties as I continue to fade Tyler Anderson, who has a 4.66 xERA against an ERA of 2.63.

This is a good price to back San Francisco. 

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