Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Can White Sox Stun Mariners?)

Reed Wallach | Jun 13, 2024

Jun 1, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet (45) throws against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports / Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday's baseball slate features games all day with a handful of teams on the move to weekend series.

I'm choosing to focus on the White Sox-Mariners game on Thursday with the team's promising starter Garrett Crochet taking the mound against a formidable, but vulnerable Seattle team.

Here's our full betting preview for Thursday's big league card, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Braves vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Orioles (-115)

The Braves' struggles continue to grow, 26th in OPS in June, and it won’t get easier against left-hander Cole Irvin. Atlanta is hitting league average throughout the season against lefties, and I’m concerned about this matchup for Reynaldo Lopez, who remains a prime regression candidate. 

Lopez has a 1.85 ERA, but his xERA looms as a big blemish on his profile, sitting at 3.85 on the year, per MLBStatcast. Against an Orioles team that is top five in OPS, this can be a brutal matchup for the right-hander. 

Nationals vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Tigers (-155)

The Nationals can’t be trusted any time Patrick Corbin takes the mound. The lefty is among the worst starters in baseball, in the first percentile in xERA and xBA while striking out 13% of batters, in the fifth percentile. 

I’ll stay off the Nats and take the Tigers to take care of business at home. 

Yankees vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Royals (+135)

The Royals have dropped all three games in its series against the Yankees, but I’m going back to the well with Kansas City at home. The team is well equipped to hit lefty pitching, which is needed against Yankees starter Nestor Cortes, a lefty himself. 

Kansas City continues to be a great underdog bet, 20-23 overall as a dog, and 24-14 at home in the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium. 

Pirates vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Cardinals (-110)

Mitch Keller’s numbers look decent on the surface, 3.16 on the year, but is allowing hard contact of 41%, higher than each of the past two seasons, and that’s showing in his xERA, which is at 4.15. 

Given this number, I’ll take the Cardinals at home. 

Cubs vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Cubs (-120)

It may seem strange to see the Cubs as road favorites, but I think this matchup sets up great for Chicago, who have Justin Steele on the mound. 

After being in the Cy Young conversation last season, Steele is starting to show his upside yet again after an injury-riddled start to the season. He has a 3.65 ERA with an xERA of 3.17 around strong control (74th percentile in walk rate). 

The Rays are a league-average hitting team against lefties, so I believe Steele can work around the Tampa Bay lineup and the Cubs have an edge against volatile pitcher Taj Bradley. 

Bradley is getting crushed by hard contact (44.4% is 15th percentile) which can be a good landing spot for a Cubs lineup that is finding its stride in June, 12th in on-base percentage this month. 

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Mets (-200)

Luis Severino should have a significant edge against a Marlins team that is hitting just .211 in June. 

Severino is enjoying a strong year with the Mets, limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground (84th percentile in ground ball percentage), which has resulted in a 3.25 ERA.

Phillies vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Phillies (-120)

Two of the best pitchers in baseball this season meet on Thursday and I fancy the Phillies as road favorites. 

Aaron Nola has been on a tear this season, posting a 96th-percentile breaking ball pitch in terms of run value, which is leading to soft contact in the 71st percentile. He has an ERA of 2.77 with above-average strikeout and walk rates.

Tanner Houck has been amongst the best in the bigs this season, but he could be due for a step back in the near future. He is allowing hard contact at the 41st percentile and has an xERA that is far higher than his actual ERA. He has an xERA of 3.24, which far outpaces his fortunate 1.91 ERA.

Athletics vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Twins (-245)

Joe Ryan should continue to build on his impressive start to the year, a 3.30 ERA supported by an xERA of 3.08, against the Athletics, who are hitting .214 as a group this season. 

White Sox vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

• Pick: White Sox (+145)

Chicago has issues finishing off wins, but the team is worth a stab at this price with its most talented pitcher, Garrett Crochet on the mound against the Mariners. 

The left-hander has an ERA of 3.33 with a 96th percentile strikeout rate (34.3% and a 95th percentile xBA (.187) and will have a favorable matchup against the Mariners, who are dead last in the bigs in batting average against southpaws. 

Angels vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Diamondbacks (-185)

The D-Backs feature far more power than the Angels, hitting an MLB-best .283 in June while the sliding Halos check in 24th in the bigs at .227. 

I’ll trust the home favorite to get it done on Thursday. 

Rangers vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Rangers (+160)

The Dodgers will go with an opener in this game after pushing back Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s start and will start Michael Grove before handing the ball to Ryan Yarbrough. 

With some more variance amongst the pitchers from the Dodgers, I’ll take a stab with the Rangers who still have an explosive middle of the order at a big price.  

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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