Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Fade Paul Skenes on Monday?)

Reed Wallach | Jul 29, 2024

Jul 23, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Paul Skenes hype meets a potential roadblock on Monday. 

Skenes, the runaway National League Rookie of the Year favorite, has joined the Cy Young discussion as well but will face one of the most potent offenses in the big leagues in the surging Houston Astros, who are starting to look like the World Series contender many envisioned ahead of the season. 

Can Skenes show out yet again as a considerable road favorite? 

Here’s our full betting preview for every game on the Monday baseball card, including Skenes' start against the Astros. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-185)

Welcome to the Orioles, Zach Eflin!

Eflin will make his debut for the Orioles after being acquired over the weekend by the club from division foe, Tampa Bay Rays. 

Eflin’s 4.09 ERA may not overwhelm you, but he has an xERA of 3.38 with one of the best walk rates in the bigs (2.8%) as well as a sterling hard-hit percentage, ranking in the 75th percentile. 

The O’s have the offense to out-pace the Blue Jays, and I think the new spot suits Eflin well. 

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-160)

While double headers always bring some variance to the second game, I’ll stick with the favorite Orioles, who will start prospect Cade Povich. While Povich has only seven starts under his belt and a 6.27 ERA, he has an xERA of 4.12 as he continues to pitch to soft contact (84th percentile). 

Most importantly, Povich is a left handed pitcher. 

The southpaw will face a Blue Jays lineup that is 27th in OPS this season against left-handed pitching, giving me confidence this team can win at home. 

Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tigers (+100)

This is a bet on Jack Flaherty, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. 

The right-hander may be making his final start as a Tigers pitcher ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline, but he sure has impressed.

Flaherty has struck out 32% of batters while posting a 2.95 ERA and a sub-5% walk rate. 

At home, I’ll trust Detroit’s starter to give the Tigers a chance to upset the Guardians. 

Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Yankees (+125)

While much has been made about the Yankees' elongated slide, the lineup has been the best-hitting unit in baseball since the All-Star break. 

The team will need its bats against the Phillies, but the NL East leader is 20th in OPS since the mid-summer classic. 

While Zach Wheeler is in the midst of the Cy Young conversation, I’m going to side with Aaron Judge and the Yankees lineup on Monday night. 

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-115)

This should be a good matchup for Cincinnati’s lineup, who can tee off on the soft-tossing Jameson Taillon. 

The right-hander has an ERA of 2.96, but his xERA is far higher at 3.69 as he struggles to put away batters (10th in whiff percentages and 26th in strikeout rate) and is a predominantly fly ball pitcher, ranking in the 27th percentile in groundball rate. 

In a hitter-friendly stadium like Great American Ballpark, Taillon may be in big trouble and hit with some underlying regression. 

Twins vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (+100)

Minnesota’s lineup presents a tough test for any pitcher, but most importantly against left-handed ones. 

The Twins are the third-best hitting lineup in baseball against southpaws, which makes for a good matchup against Jose Quintana of the Mets. 

Quintana’s 4.02 ERA is fine on the surface, but his xERA sits at 5.22 with a limited pitch arsenal at 35 years old, striking out a career-low 18% of batters. 

This is a nightmare matchup for New York, I’ll side with the road underdog. 

Mariners vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-125)

Logan Gilbert’s 2.72 ERA is impressive, but so is Boston’s recent hitting, second in Major League Baseball in OPS since the All-Star break. 

I’ll side with the home team as I await for Seattle to settle its hitting woes, 29th in batting average in July.

Rangers vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rangers (-115)

With a nasty fastball, Nathan Eovaldi remains a tough out for any lineup and is worth a bet as a small road favorite against a limited Cardinals team. 

Eovaldi’s fastball run value ranks in the 95th percentile, and he pairs it with a filthy offspeed arsenal that ranks in the 93rd percentile in terms of run value. He has been prone to hard contact, but his ability to get batters to chase out of the zone (33%, 88th percentile), makes me confident the Rangers can navigate this game on the road. 

Braves vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (-120)

Both of these teams have been eaten by the injury bug, so I’ll stick with the home team in a near coin flip type matchup. 

The Brewers have been a reliable team at home all season, going 30-19 at American Family Field this season as well as 33-24 as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Braves have been shaky when the market is expecting a loss, 6-10 as an underdog this season. 

Royals vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-170)

The White Sox are as helpless as it gets. 

Even with single-game variance, I can’t trust Chicago who is in the midst of a 14-game losing streak against a Royals team that is second in batting average in July.

Pirates vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astors (+140)

Skenes is a big favorite on Monday night, but is it justified? If Skenes isn’t able to pitch past the seventh inning, a bottom-10 bullpen backs him up to keep this game tight. 

This is an elite Astros lineup that has been playing above league average since play got back underway, 12th in OPS since the All-Star break, playing at home in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Stadium.

Skenes hasn’t truly struggled yet, but every pitcher has one, and the mix of Astros bats, good form, and home stadium makes me confident in the underdog bet. 

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-165)

This is a good opportunity for Jordan Montgomery to get on track. 

The World Series stalwart of the Rangers has struggled with Arizona this season, posting a 6.11 ERA, but is facing a Nationals team that is bottom three in OPS against lefty pitching. 

I’ll take the D-Backs as home favorites. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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