Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (How to Bet Yankees vs. Royals and More!)

Reed Wallach | Jun 10, 2024

Jun 7, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) slides into third base for a triple during the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a shortened slate on the Major League Baseball docket on Monday, but we are still scoping out the card for betting value. 

The biggest matchup on Monday is the New York Yankees taking its American League best record to Kansas City to face the upstart Royals, who have been a cash cow at home with Seth Lugo on the mound. 

If you are looking for betting information on Monday, you’ve come to the right place! 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

Orioles vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Rays (+125)

Corbin Burnes looks to bolster his Cy Young case on Monday against the Rays, but I’ll side with the home underdog on Monday night who has an emerging threat on the mound in Ryan Pepiot. 

Pepiot isn’t getting enough attention this season, upping his strikeout rate to nearly 29%, which is in the 86th percentile per MLBStatcast. With a fastball that features a ton of movement and an elite ability to get swings and misses, Pepiot should continue to improve his metrics, down from a 3.96 ERA closer to his xERA of 2.88. 

Rockies vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Twins (-230)

It may look puzzling for Chris Paddack to be a -230 given his 5.26 ERA, but he has been fairly unlucky this season, his xERA is 4.21 on the year. 

He faces a Rockies team that is non-competitive at the plate, the team is 27th in OPS on the road this season which is away from the hitter-friendly Coors Field, and should be able to pump his metrics. 

Meanwhile, the Twins have a favorable matchup against Dakota Hudson, who is walking nearly as many batters as striking out and the Rockies bolster a bottom-five ERA behind him in the bullpen. 

Yankees vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Royals (+110)

The Royals remain a great bet at home, 24-11 at Kauffman Stadium. Further, the team is 20-20 as an underdog this season, one of the best in the big leagues. 

While it’s tough to fade the vaunted Yankees, this matchup sets up nicely for the Royals, who hit lefties well (eighth in OPS) and draw a plus matchup against Carlos Rodon, who is due a ton of regression amidst an inefficient breaking ball. 

The Yankees’ lefty has a 3.08 ERA while his xERA is 4.24 and he has been crushed by hard-hit percentage (20th percentile on the year). I’ll back KC at home. 

Blue Jays vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Brewers (-115)

We’re sure these teams are close to equal? 

Milwaukee has been a top-10 offense all season long with an elite bullpen, negating some concerns about Collin Rea moving forward in this matchup against a below-average Blue Jays lineup. 

Further, Jose Berrios remains a prime regression candidate, pitching to a 4.00 ERA since the start of May as he begins to show signs of slowing down. However, there’s more room for him to drop off. Berrios has an ERA of 2.80 with an xERA of 4.41 and a diminished strikeout rate that is its lowest since his rookie season in 2018. 

White Sox vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Mariners (-230)

The White Sox aren’t a competitive baseball team to keep up with the Mariners, who have Logan Gilbert on the mound sporting one of the nastiest breaking ball pitches in the sport this season (98th percentile). 

The White Sox have the lowest batting average and OPS in baseball this season, it’s tough to trust them to keep up. 

Athletics vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Athletics (+180)

The Padres have a ton of talent but are just a .500 ball club that is struggling to string together hits, overreliant on getting on base via walks. However, the A’s can counter that with prospect Joey Estes sporting an 80th percentile walk rate while posting strong underlying metrics, including a 3.10 xERA that is far lower than his 4.67 ERA. 

Dylan Cease has a ton of talent and is pitching at an All-Star level with the Padres, but the team’s bullpen is nearly equal to the Athletics’, below big league average, and can lead to an upset with more variance later on. 

Astros vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

• Pick: Astros (-115)

Spencer Arrighetti’s numbers are still ugly, but he’s trending upwards. After a few shaky starts, the prospect has pitched at least five innings in five of six starts and draws a middling Giants offense with a struggling Kyle Harrison on the mound. 

The left-hander is struggling this season and his velocity is down across the board. He is getting hammered by hard contact, 16th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 12th in barrel percentage, which is problematic against an elite hitting group in the Astros, making me bullish that the visitors can win at this short price tag. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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