Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Mets' June Surge to Continue vs. Rangers?)

Reed Wallach | Jun 17, 2024

Jun 16, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) reacts after hitting a solo home run during his MLB baseball game against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-USA TODAY Sports / John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

While some teams are traveling to get ready for the next week of Major League Baseball games, we have a handful of teams in action on Monday’s card. 

A subplot building is the Mets’ June heater as the team has ripped off five straight wins and appears primed to get back into the mix in the NL Wild Card discussion. The team starts an early week series with the Rangers on Monday in hopes of continuing to climb up the standings, does this matchup set up well for New York? 

Here’s our look at Mets vs. Rangers as well every game on the MLB slate:

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Reds vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (+160)

Paul Skenes is living up to the hype in his first handful of starts in the big leagues, striking out more than 35% of batters with a 2.43 ERA, but I can’t trust him at this price given the futility of the Pirates bullpen. 

Pittsburgh’s pen grades out as bottom 10 in bullpen ERA, and Skenes has been prone to hard contact in his own right, 27th percentile in hard-hit percentage according to MLBStatcast. 

Cincinnati has been playing its best ball in June, 9-5 this month, and I’ll take them as big underdogs. 

Cardinals vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (+130)

Sonny Gray has been outstanding this season, posting a 3.02 ERA, but I can’t trust the Cardinals as road favorites given the team’s second-worst OPS against left-handed pitching this year. 

Braxton Garrett, the Marlins lefty starter on Monday, is owed a ton of underlying regression with a 4.28 xERA, which is far lower than his 6.10 ERA, and this matchup sets up greatly for him to get his season on track. 

Padres vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-185)

Randy Vasquez is one of the most vulnerable pitchers in the big leagues, owed a ton of regression moving forward. The Padres right-hander has a 4.93 ERA, but has an xERA of 5.95 with his low strikeout rate of 15%. Overall, he is in the first percentile in xBA across all qualified pitchers in Major League Baseball.

He’s a prime fade candidate on Monday.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (-125)

The Red Sox are traveling to Toronto after playing on Sunday Night Baseball, making for a tricky spot on Monday with a taxed bullpen. It also won’t get any easier against Yusei Kikuchi, a left-hander, against a Boston team that is middle of the pack in terms of OPS against southpaws.  

Tigers vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tigers (+170)

The Braves are still struggling, ranking in the bottom half of the bigs in batting average (.234) since the start of June. The team will lean on its star pitcher Max Fried, who is pitching at a high level yet again in 2024 after an injury-riddled 2023. 

However, Fried has been a benefactor of some good variance in the field. He has seen his strikeout rate dwindle, but has been able to avoid hard contact, but is leaving plenty of balls in the strike zone and is in the 49th in xBA. 

The Tigers' offense is underwhelming, but the team has a standout pitcher in Reese Olson on the mound, who is far better than his 1-8 record would indicate. He has a 3.68 ERA which tracks with a 3.62 xERA, and has done a great job generating swings and misses (80th percentile chase percentage), but has been pretty unlucky. 

He has allowed a hard-hit percentage in the 10th percentile despite an 83rd-percentile barrel percentage. He’s getting crushed by balls that shouldn’t be yielding hard contact.

I’ll back the big underdog come Monday night. 

Mets vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (+110)

The Mets are winners of five straight, pulling closer to a Wild Card berth, and I like the matchup on Monday against the Rangers. 

New York will start David Peterson at home, who should thrive as a left-hander against a Rangers lineup that struggles against southpaws, ranking 23td in OPS against southpaws. 

Giants vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (-115)

Two promising starters take the mound on Monday in Jordan Hicks of the Giants and Javier Assad of the Cubs. 

However, I’m backing Chicago outside of the starting pitching, but rather because the Giants have the fourth-worst bullpen in terms of ERA in the bigs this season. 

In what should be a tight game, give me the team with the more trustworthy bullpen. 

Dodgers vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+140)

With Mookie Betts set to hit the injured list with a fractured hand, I’ll fade the Dodgers as the team heads to the Rockies. 

While there is still a massive talent gap, James Paxton is in big trouble moving forward in the Dodgers rotation. The left-hander has an xERA of 5.06, far worse than his 3.92 ERA, with a near-even strikeout-to-walk ratio (13.8%-to-12.6%). 

I’ll back the home underdog Rockies. 

Brewers vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (-115)

The Brewers are the better team on both sides of the field, eighth in OPS against the Angels, who are 16th in the same category. Further, the Angels bullpen is among the worst in the bigs and has a total pitching staff ERA that is the third highest in baseball. 

At a near coin flip odds, Milwaukee is the trustworthy side.

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.