Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Struggling Kershaw Can't Be Trusted vs. Phillies)

Reed Wallach | Aug 6, 2024

Jul 31, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) pitches during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-USA TODAY Sports / David Frerker-USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday brings a full slate of Major League Baseball with some high leverage matchups with an eye on postseason positioning.

The biggest one with postseason implications is arguably the Dodgers and Phillies in Los Angeles. The Dodgers, who have been tested with injuries all season, is hoping to get future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw into postseason shape after missing most of the season with an injury. However, Kershaw looks like a shell of himself and can't be trusted against a quality team like the Phillies.

Here's how I'm betting Dodgers vs. Phillies as well as every game on the Tuesday card.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Padres vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-165)

The Pirates are fresh off losing a series in a Wild Card-centric matchup against the Diamondbacks this past weekend and I think it gets worse against another playoff hopeful in the Padres. 

Cease is pitching his best now. He posted a 2.35 ERA in six July starts, including three straight starts that featured no earned runs. The Pirates offense don’t have enough answers for Cease who should be able to navigate this lineup.

On the other side, look for the Padres offense to handle Bailey Falter and a more limited bullpen.

Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-115)

Eduardo Rordriguez is set to make his season debut on Tuesday in hopes of bolstering the D-Backs pitching rotation for another October push. 

I like Arizona’s chances on Tuesday, mainly about the team's potent offense that is fresh off a 7-6 win against Cleveland on Monday. The team has won eight of 10 and will face right hander Ben Lively, who has been crushed by hard contact, 19th percentile in hard-hit percentage. 

Reds vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-145)

The Marlins are the worst hitting team against left handed pitching, .622 OPS against southpaws, so I’ll side with the Reds and promising lefty Nick Lodolo. While he has a 3.99 ERA, he has a 3.53 xERA with a high ground ball rate (74th percentile). 

Giants vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants (-120)

The Giants are trying to stay in the Wild Card conversation, and as winners of eight of 10, the team is still in the mix. 

I like San Francisco to stay hot on Tuesday as the team is incredibly potent against left handed pitching and is matched up against MacKenzie Gore. While he throws hard, he has been knocked around kind of a bit, at a big league average hard hit rate and his ERA sits at 4.54.

Angels vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Yankees (-300)

The Angels have been a mess out of the All-Star break, bottom four in OPS since the midsummer classic while the Yankees have been second in the same metric. 

Orioles vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-140)

Baltimore is in a good spot on Tuesday against Chris Bassitt and the Blue Jays. Toronto’s right hander has been worse than his surface level numbers indicate all year. He has a 4.02 ERA with a 4.30 xERA and a diminished strikeout rate that is below his career average. 

Further, Toronto is 17-36 as an underdog. This team has underwhelmed all season, and will again on Tuesday. 

Brewers vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-135)

Bryce Elder made his return to the big leagues and shut down the Brewers last week, allowing one earned run in more than six innings of work with seven strikeouts. 

Both teams continue to battle injuries and are leaning on its depth to hold up in respective postseason runs, but I’m going to side with the slight favorites at home.

Rays vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (+125)

Another opportunity to fade the Cardinals against a left handed pitcher!

The Rays will hope that Jeffrey Springs can build on a limited first start of the season last week, he allowed six hits and two earned runs in less than four innings of work, but will draw a favorable matchup against the Cardinals, who has the second lowest OPS against lefties. 

Count on the Rays at plus money.

Astros vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rangers (-105)

Tyler Mahle is set to make his debut for the Rangers after Tommy John surgery, and I’ll take a shot on the home underdog. 

While this is a bit of a bet on Mahle being close to normal, I can’t trust Framber Valdez, who is in the second percentile in hard-hit rate this season as his offspeed pitches have fallen off in a big way. Valdez’s 3.56 ERA is a bit fraudulent, posting a 3.85 xERA with a below league average strikeout rate. 

Twins vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-110)

This is an advantageous spot for the Twins, who have Pablo Lopez going (4.64 vs. 3.43 xERA!) and are facing a left handed pitcher in Shota Imanaga. While the Cubs rookie has had a stellar season, I’ll go with the depth of the Twins lineup, which is top five in OPS against southpaws. 

The Cubs are out of the postseason picture, I like the Twins to keep on rolling. 

Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (+110)

The Red Sox bats can possibly put a punishing blow in Seth Lugo’s Cy Young campaign. 

Lugo has had a special season, but has been knocked around by hard contact, 40th percentile and average exit velocity in the 47th percentile. 

This will be tough against the sweet swinging Red Sox, who have the highest OPS (.921) since the All-Star break. I’ll trust Boston on the road. 

Mets vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-150)

Luis Severino has had a resurgent season with the Mets, and he sets up for a quality start against the Rockies despite playing at the hitter friendly Coors Field. 

Severino has a ground ball rate in the 76th percentile and hard hit percentage in the 70th percentile, which can play a big factor at altitude. Give me the Amazin’s to keep pace in the NL Wild Card discussion. 

Tigers vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (-200)

Seattle should have the edge against Detroit prospect Keider Montero, who has struggled in his jump to the big leagues, posting a 6.18 ERA with some concerning splits on his pitches that features a sub-20% strikeout rate. 

White Sox vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (-190)

21 losses in a row for the White Sox, and I’m not counting on an upset on Tuesday. This team remains uncompetitive, losing 17 of those by more than one run. 

Phillies vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-105)

Clayton Kershaw continues to work himself into shape for the Dodgers with an eye on the postseason, not a Tuesday night matchup in early August. 

He has a 14% strikeout rate through two starts this season and has zero pop on his fastball (fifth percentile in velocity on that pitch). While the Dodgers have the lineup edge, I’m going to side with the Phillies as a way to fade Kershaw until he starts to look more like his normal self. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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