Royals vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 13

The Astros are favored to respond after falling to the Royals 7-5 at home on Monday.

Kris Bubic comes into Tuesday's matchup on the road against Houston with a hot arm, making him an intriguing prop play. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros continue their three-game series Tuesday, May 13, at Minute Maid Park after a 7-5 Houston victory in the opener.

Kansas City rebounded quickly from a series loss in Boston by jumping all over Houston in Monday’s opener, scoring seven early runs and holding on despite a late Kansas City rally. The Royals hand the ball to Kris Bubic (3-2, 4.93 ERA), who’s proven he’s one of the better arms in the American League through eight starts this season. 

Houston counters with Framber Valdez (1-1, 3.86 ERA). Valdez looks to prolong the tremendous command he displayed in his last outing in which he delivered seven innings for one earned run and seven strikeouts.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Tuesday’s matchup.

Royals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Run Line

• Royals +1.5 (-200)
• Astros -1.5  (+165)

Moneyline

• Royals (+110)
• Astros (-130)

Total

• Over 8 (-115)
• Under 8 (-105)

Royals vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

• Royals: Kris Bubic (3-2, 4.93 ERA)
• Astros: Framber Valdez (1-1, 3.86 ERA)

Royals vs. Astros How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, May 13
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Minute Park Park
• How to Watch (TV): AT&T SportsNet Southwest, Bally Sports
• Royals Record: 25-18
• Astros Record: 20-20

Royals vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bets

Royals vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bet

•  Kris Bubic Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Bubic has pitched at least five innings in all eight of his starts this season, showcasing two exceptional abilities: limiting exit velocity and getting hitters to chase pitches outside the zone. Per Statcast, he’s eliciting an 87.4% average exit velocity while throwing hitters off outside the zone at a 32.2% rate. 

The sixth-year Kansas City southpaw will be chomping at the bit for a Houston team that is dead last in exit velocity and is one of the game’s most frequently chasing clubs, ranking No. 8 overall in chase rate. 

He’s hit at least five strikeouts in six starts while striking out 8.81 hitters per nine innings. 

Bubic is lights out on the road with a 2.01 ERA and .233 average against. 

Since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Bubic has reinvented his pitch mix. His sweeper and slider have complemented his fastball and changeup to give a balanced four-pitch arsenal that makes him a confident play on a strikeout total prop against an inconsistent offense. 

Royals vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

This has all the makings of a showdown on the mound. Although the series opener got away with Houston’s starting pitching digging itself an early hole while Kansas City’s bullpen slipped in comfortably protecting the lead, I expect things to tighten up on Tuesday with Bubic and Valdez. 

Both carry a groove into the matchup as Bubic has tossed back-to-back shutouts. He’s also pitched effectively against the Astros, holding them to a .209 average over 43 at-bats. 

I don’t trust this Astros lineup against left-handed pitching — it’s hitting .228 in 184 at-bats.

Framber Valdez isn’t pitching at his peak in 2025, but he’s still limiting high exit velocity per Statcast. Plus, Royals hitters hold a .165 average in 115 at-bats against Valdez throughout his career. 

Southpaws aren’t Kansas City’s strong suit either, posting a .235 batting average. 

Count on these teams to keep things under control as Bubic and Valdez are supported with two top-five bullpens in their relief (Houston, 3.10 ERA); Kansas City, 2.79 ERA).

Pick: Under 8 (-105 at BetMGM)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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