Royals vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 1

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Kansas City Royals-Seattle Mariners matchup on July 1.

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen is an interesting prop target on Tuesday. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Seattle Mariners took Game 1 of their four-game set with the Kansas City Royals on Monday night, pushing them to 6-4 in their last 10 games.

Seattle is six games out of first place in the AL West, but it is favored at home in Game 2 of this series against a Kansas City team that is 2-8 in its last 10 games and fading fast.

The Royals have Michael Lorenzen on the mound against Seattle’s Emerson Hancock, and neither pitcher has been all that impressive in the 2025 campaign.

How should we bet on this matchup?

First, let’s take a look at the odds for this game before I dish out my favorite prop – and game prediction – for Tuesday’s action.  

Royals vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Royals +1.5 (-181)
• Mariners -1.5 (+147)

Moneyline

• Royals: +118
• Mariners: -144

Total

• 8 (Over -118/Under -103)

Royals vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

• Kansas City: Michael Lorenzen (4-8, 4.91 ERA)
• Seattle: Emerson Hancock (3-4, 5.30 ERA)

Royals vs. Mariners How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 1
• Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• How to Watch (TV): ROOT Sports NW, FDSKC
• Royals record: 39-46
• Mariners record: 44-40

Royals vs. Mariners Best MLB Prop Bets

Royals Best MLB Prop Bet

• Michael Lorenzen OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-165)

One of the reasons the Mariners have succeeded on offense this season has been their ability to draw walks. They are seventh in MLB in walks drawn this season, and they should be able to draw a few free passes against Lorenzen.

So far in 2025, Lorenzen has 28 walks in 88 innings of work, allowing two or more walks in eight of his 16 outings.

Last month, he hit the OVER on this line in three of five outings, walking three batters on multiple occasions. Since this isn’t the best matchup for Lorenzen, I’ll take the OVER on his walks allowed prop tonight. 

Royals vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

The Royals have the second-best UNDER record in MLB, but it’s really hard to trust these starters to keep this game low-scoring.

So, I’m going to bet the OVER on a relatively low total of 8 in Game 2 of this series.

The series opener finished with eight combined runs, and the offense should come relatively easily against Hancock and Lorenzen.

Let’s start with Hancock, who has struggled all season long for Seattle.

The young righty ranks in just the ninth percentile in expected ERA (5.23) and the seventh percentile in expected batting average against. Overall, he has a 5.30 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, allowing at least three earned runs in five different outings.

The Mariners are 7-7 in Hancock’s starts, but he has a tendency to get blown up, allowing three starts with six or more earned runs allowed.

As for Lorenzen, he ranks in just the 29th percentile in expected ERA and has an actual ERA of 5.80 over his last 10 starts. During that 10-game stretch, Lorenzen has seven outings with three or more earned runs allowed.

Even though both of these offenses are far from elite – the Royals are dead last in MLB in runs scored – I don’t trust either starter to keep things in check in the early going.

I think this is a prime spot to fade the Royals’ UNDER trend and take the OVER on Tuesday. It’s worth noting that Seattle is the second-best OVER team in the league (46-34-4) in 2025. 

Pick: OVER 8 (-118 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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