Royals vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, June 20

Sean Treppedi | Jun 20, 2025

The Padres are expensive on the moneyline, but serve enough reason to back them against the Royals at home Friday. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The Royals recovered modestly from a rough patch and capped by a three-game sweep of Texas on the road this week. 

Albeit the on-field drama, the Padres once again avoided disaster Thursday, taking down the Dodgers 5–3 to stave off a four-game sweep. Their offense, recently bolstered by Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth—who homered Thursday—is clicking again, while the home bullpen has been impressive with a 3.02 ERA and just 0.78 HR/9 at Petco.

Michael Lorenzen (4–7, 4.91 ERA) takes to the mantle foe Kansas City with a shaky but occasionally potent mix, while the Padres counter with Nick Pivetta (7–2, 3.40 ERA), who delivered seven innings of two-run ball with nine strikeouts against Arizona on Sunday. 

The contrast is stark: Pivetta establishes control early and limits long balls — just nine allowed in nearly 80 innings — while Lorenzen is more contact-driven and susceptible to damage.

Here’s how I’m betting this game to kick off the weekend.

Royals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Royals +1.5 (-162)
• Padres -1.5 (+134)

Moneyline

• Royals (+136)
• Padres (-162)

Total

• Over 7.5 (-120)
• Under 7.5 (-102)

Royals vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Royals: Michael Lorenzen (4-7 , 4.91 ERA)
• Padres: Nick Pivetta (7-2, 3.40 ERA

Royals vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Friday, June 20, 2025
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): Apple TV+
• Royals Record: 37-38
• Padres Record: 40-34

Royals vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-104 at FanDuel)

Lorenzen’s modest 19.5% strikeout rate translates to 7.5 K/9, which ranks well below the league average and marks him as far from a strikeout artist ahead of facing the Padres on the road. His pitch profile relies on high-contact offerings like a four-seamer, changeup and curve, which results in just a 22.6% whiff rate per Statcast.

San Diego batters have collectively struck out just 18% of the time against right-handed pitchers over the past year, one of the lowest rates in the league. He cleared 3.5 in both his last two starts, but even elite strikeout pitchers haven’t rung up the Padres at high rates recently, so I’m glad to take this line on Lorenzen.

Royals vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Neither of these teams are profitable right now as the Royals are playing desperate for wins with inconsistent run support while the Padres fly by a different identity any given night. The Padres don’t carry the sexiest odds in spite of this, but I’m leaning their way given the starting pitching and homefield advantage. Lorenzen has struggled badly in recent starts, giving up 13 earned runs over just 7.2 innings in his last two outings against the Reds and Cardinals.

In contrast, Pivetta had a rocky start to June, but showed more of his May self in his last start with seven innings of two-hit ball against Arizona. The Royals have been ice-cold at the plate against right-handed pitching over the last 10 days, posting 57 wRC+ while the Padres advertise 134 wRC+ in that same split.

Pick: Padres (-162 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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