Royals vs. Twins Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Tuesday, Aug. 13 (Back This Seth Lugo Prop)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Kansas City Royals-Minnesota Twins matchup in MLB on Tuesday.

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo. / Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins are fighting for a wild card spot in the American League – and a chance to overtake the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central – down the stretch of the 2024 regular season. 

Minnesota took the series opener of this week’s matchup, winning 8-3 at home on Monday. Now, the Twins are looking to keep the momentum rolling against Royals righty Seth Lugo, who has been one of the better pitchers in the AL this season. 

For the Twins, No. 6 prospect Zebby Matthews will make his MLB debut after posting a 2.60 ERA across starts in A+, AA and AAA ball this season. 

Oddsmakers have this game set as a pick’em, so how should we bet on it?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, starting pitchers, players to watch and my best bet for Tuesday’s divisional clash. 

Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Royals -1.5 (+150)
• Twins +1.5 (-180)

Moneyline

• Royals: -110
• Twins: -110

Total

• 8.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Royals vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

• Kansas City: Seth Lugo (13-6, 2.72 ERA)
• Minnesota: Zebby Matthews (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Royals vs. Twins How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Aug. 13
• Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Field 
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Kansas City, Bally Sports North
• Royals record: 65-54
• Twins record: 66-52

Royals vs. Twins Key Players to Watch

Kansas City Royals

Seth Lugo: One of the best moves of the offseason, Lugo has been lights out for the Royals, posting a 2.72 ERA and 3.45 FIP across 24 starts. The Royals have struggled when he doesn’t earn the decision (1-4), but they’re 14-10 overall when he gets the ball, including a 1-1 record against the Twins. 

Minnesota Twins

Royce Lewis: When he’s played this season, Lewis has been a major threat, slashing .279/.356/.664 with 15 homers and 34 runs batted in over just 40 games. If he can stay healthy, it may help the Twins make a real run at the division title in 2024. 

Royals vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

I have a prop play in this game that is one of my favorites for the day – which I wrote up in today’s MLB Best Bets. 

All season long, Kansas City Royals righty Seth Lugo has been impressive, posting a 2.72 ERA across 24 outings, leading the Royals to a 14-10 record in those games. 

Lugo – a former reliever – has shown an ability to go deep into matchups, pitching six or more innings in 20 of his 24 outings. So, the fact that he’s set at just 17.5 outs recorded on Tuesday is pretty shocking.

Earlier this season, Lugo made a pair of starts against the Twins, going six innings in both of them while allowing a combined eight hits and just one earned run. The Twins do rank sixth in the league in OPS, which makes them a tough matchup, but Lugo has been lights out against the Royals’ division rival in 2024. 

I’ll take a shot on him to get through six innings again, especially since he’s done so more than 80 percent of the time this season. 

Pick: Seth Lugo OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-180)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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