Rutgers vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Tuesday, March 4

Reed Wallach | Mar 4, 2025

Feb 27, 2025; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Dylan Harper (2) dribbles in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Purdue snapped a four game losing streak against UCLA on Friday night and can build up some momentum ahead of the Big Ten Tournament, which starts next week. 

The Boilermakers defense has fallen off over the last month or so, and will face a volatile Rutgers team that has proven it can hang with any team in the country when it’s at its best. What type of outing can we expect from the Scarlet Knights on the road? 

Let’s break it down below!

Rutgers vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Rutgers: +10.5 (-104)
• Purdue: -10.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Rutgers: +430
• Purdue: -600

Total: 151.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Rutgers vs. Purdue How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, March 4
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Mackey Arena
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• Rutgers Record: 14-15
• Purdue Record: 20-9

Rutgers vs. Purdue Key Players to Watch

Rutgers

Dylan Harper: The Boilermakers ball pressure has held up throughout Big Ten play, but if teams can protect the ball, it’s easy to get clean looks against this defense. So, a lot of pressure will fall on Harper to keep this Rutgers offense on schedule. An elite shot creator for himself and others, Harper will look to out-play Braden Smith at Mackey Arena and lead to another Rutgers cover as a big road underdog. 

Purdue

Braden Smith: Smith broke out of a mini slump on Friday, scoring 23 points with six 3-point makes against UCLA to go with eight assists and four steals. The nation’s leader in assist rate while also ranking third in Big Ten play in steal rate, Smith will look to keep Purdue on its winning ways ahead of the postseason. 

Rutgers vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

Purdue’s defense has fallen off a cliff in Big Ten play as the team has reinvented its roster this season to instill no-middle principles that is reliant on generating ball pressure. The Boilermakers lead the conference in turnover percentage, but that also has come at expense of the league’s worst two-point defense. 

It’s a feast or famine defense, and I believe Rutgers is equipped to keep up with the Boilermakers on the road at a big number. 

Rutgers has been up-and-down, but has proven it can contend with the top teams in the league, losing to Michigan as double digit underdogs last week at the buzzer. The offense has enjoyed an up-tick in efficiency over the last month with a healthy Harper and Ace Bailey engineering an offense that ranks top 50 in the country in free throw rate since Feb. 4. 

This is an aggressive Purdue defense that can send opponents to the free throw line in droves while also leaving the paint open to be attacked. The team has allowed the highest two-point field goal percentage in the country since Feb. 4.

Overall, Purdue may win, but I don’t believe it's equipped to blow out an opponent like Rutgers. 

PICK: Rutgers +10.5 (-104, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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