San Diego State vs. Hawai'i Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 11

Iain MacMillan | Nov 8, 2025

Hawai'i is a home underdog against San Diego State is college football Week 11 / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

If you want a late-night sweat on Saturday, Hawai'i football is always going to be there for you. They've strung together a solid 6-3 season so far, but on Saturday, they'll host the San Diego State Aztecs, who are in first place in the Mountain West with a 4-0 conference record.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this late-night showdown.

San Diego State vs. Hawai'i Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• San Diego State -6.5 (-122)
• Hawai'i +6.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• San Diego State -265
• Hawai'i +215

Total

• OVER 50.5 (-105)
• UNDER 50.5 (-115)

San Diego State vs. Hawai'i How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 8
• Game Time: 11:00 pm ET
• Venue: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
• How to Watch (TV): Spectrum Sports Network
• San Diego State Record: 7-1 (4-0 in Mountain West)
• Hawai'i Record: 6-3 (3-2 in Mountain West)

San Diego State vs. Hawai'i Betting Trends

• San Diego State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games
• The OVER is 6-2 in San Diego State's last eight road games
• Hawai'o is 4-1 ATS in its alst five games
• Hawai'i is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games

San Diego State vs. Hawai'i Key Player to Watch

• Micah Alejado, QB - Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Hawai'i's quarterback has quietly put together a solid season so far, racking up 2,124 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions. If the Rainbow Warriors had a more competent defense, they'd have more wins this season. Let's see if he can bring it against San Diego State on Saturday night.

San Diego State vs. Hawai'i Prediction and Pick

The Hawai'i defense has been so bad this season that you might think the bet to place is the OVER, but I'm going to go the opposite and take the UNDER. The Aztecs' defense has been one of the best defenses in the country, ranking second in opponent EPA per play and fourth in opponent yards per play, allowing just 4.63 yards per snap. Any game that involves a defense that elite shouldn't have a total of touching the 50s.

While the Hawai'i defense has struggled in 2025, I'm not sure the San Diego State offense can take advantage. They are just 71st in the country in adjusted EPA per play and 67th in offensive success rate.

I expect this to be a low-scoring affair.

Pick: UNDER 50.5 (-115) via FanDuel

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