Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy: Matchup Bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Rory McIlroy could be a strong bet to finish ahead of Scottie Scheffler at Bay Hill this week.

Rory McIlroy is an underdog to Scottie Scheffler in a head-to-head matchup at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The fourth signature event of the 2025 PGA Tour season is at Bay Hill this week, the host of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Scottie Scheffler has dominated this event the past three years, winning it twice, but don’t underestimate the No. 2-ranked golfer in the world, Rory McIlroy, who has also had his fair share of success at this tournament.

If you have a take on which of the two golfers will finish further up the leaderboard, or if you’re interested in some other head-to-head bets, you’ve come to the right place. In this article, I’m going to break down a few of my favorite matchup bets for the API, including my take on Scheffler vs. McIlroy.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Head-to-Head Bets

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Rory McIlroy +125 vs. Scottie Scheffler
• Justin Thomas -110 vs. Xander Schauffele
• Hideki Matsuyama -135 vs. Tony Finau

Rory McIlroy +125 vs. Scottie Scheffler

It’s crazy to say this about a golfer that has gone T9, T25 and T3 in his last three starts, but I truly don’t believe Scottie Scheffler has fully found his swing since missing time with a hand injury. His approach numbers in his last two starts would back that claim up. He gained just +0.69 strokes per round in that area at the WM Phoenix Open and +0.91 strokes per round at the Genesis. Those are still solid numbers, but last year Scheffler was clearing those numbers by a significant margin.

Meanwhile, Rory McIlroy has won two of his last three starts and has been playing some fantastic golf. Not to mention that before Scheffler came along, Bay Hill belonged to the Northern Irishman. Since 2017, he finished T4, WIN, T6, T5, T10, T13 and T2 at this event and then posted a disappointing T21 here last year.

I’m willing to take him at plus-money to beat the No. 1 golfer in the world this week.

Justin Thomas -110 vs. Xander Schauffele

If you want to fade Xander Schauffele this week, this is a great way to do it. The two-time major winner from a year ago will be making his first start since nursing a rib injury, posting a T30 finish at the Sentry the last time he played competitive golf. Not only that, but he has never had strong results at Bay Hill, with a T24 in 2020 being his top finish.

Justin Thomas is a popular pick to win this week, and for good reason. His approach numbers have started to look like prime JT and he’s coming into this week having posted a top-10 finish in three of his last four starts. A T12 finish at the API last year is also a promising note ahead of this week’s event.

I’ll jump all over him to finish ahead of Xander at pick'em odds.

Hideki Matsuyama -135 vs. Tony Finau

You may be tempted to back Tony Finau after a promising T5 finish at the Genesis Invitational, but he gained an unsustainable +1.54 strokes per round around the greens. I expect him to come back down to earth at a course where he has yet to perform well. Last year’s T24 finish was the best Finau has ever done at Bay Hill, missing the cut twice in the past five years.

Matsuyama has already posted a win this season and has improved in each of his last three starts. Bay Hill is a great course fit for the 33-year-old, as long as he can keep his driving accuracy in check. He posted a T12 finish here last year and has finished inside the top 20 in three of the last four years.

As long as you don't mind laying the -135 odds, I think he can take down the American this week.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!