South Florida vs. Memphis Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Friday, March 7

Iain MacMillan | Mar 6, 2025

Memphis is a huge favorite to USF on Friday night. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Memphis Tigers have already clinched the regular season AAC title, but one more win against USF on Friday night will give them some momentum heading into the conference tournament.

These two teams have already met once this season, with the Tigers securing an 80-65 win. Will we see a similar result on Friday night? Let's find out what the oddsmakers think.

USF vs. Memphis Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• USF +13.5 (-110)
• Memphis -13.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• USF +720
• Memphis -1000

Total

• OVER 150.5 (-110)
• UNDER 150.5 (-110)

USF vs. Memphis How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 7
• Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
• Venue: FedEx Forum
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• USF Record: 13-17 (6-11 Conference)
• Memphis Record: 25-5 (15-2 Conference)

USF vs. Memphis Key Players to Watch

South Florida

Jamille Reynolds: Not only is Jamille Reynolds the Bulls' leading scorer, averaging 12.9 points per game, but he's also one of their best defensive players, averaging 1.6 blocks per game. He can be a game disrupter any time he steps on the court.

Memphis

PJ Haggarty: The Tigers' PJ Haggerty is averaging a blistering 21.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. He's one of the best players the AAC has to offer, and if Memphis goes on to win the conference tournament, he'll play a big role in that outcome.

USF vs. Memphis Prediction and Pick

While I'm sure Memphis is going to win this game, I'm going to take a chance on South Florida covering this hefty spread. Memphis has a turnover problem, coughing it up on 18.9% of their possessions, which ranks 307th in the country. Now, they face a USF team that not only turns the ball over at a much lower rate, but they also force turnovers on 17.8% of their opponents' possessions. That number has jumped to 22.3% over their last three games.

It's also worth noting that the interior defense of USF, mostly led by Jamille Reynolds, is going to play a key role in slowing down the Memphis offense. 66.4% of the Tigers' shots come from two-point range, the 51st highest rate in college basketball. That's going to play right into the strength of the BuBulls'lls defense.

Those two factors are enough to convince me to take the points with USF.

Pick: USF +13.5 (-110) via FanDuel

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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