Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, March 9

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the San Antonio Spurs-Minnesota Timberwolves matchup on Sunday, March 9.

Minnesota Timberwolves forward Julius Randle is a great prop target on Sunday. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Timberwolves are rolling right now, as they’ve won four games in a row and are making a real case for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference heading into Sunday’s matchup with the San Antonio Spurs. 

San Antonio has fallen off in the play-in tournament picture since Victor Wembanyama went down for the season, and it’s a road underdog in this contest.

The Wolves, who haven’t had Rudy Gobert (back) for weeks, are hoping that the former Defensive Player of the Year can return on Sunday (he is currently listed as questionable). 

For the Spurs, rookie Stephon Castle has been blossoming, averaging 24.0 points per game in his last five contests. Can he keep San Antonio in this matchup?

Let’s break down the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Sunday’s contest. 

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Spurs +10.5 (-108)
• Timberwolves -10.5 (112)

Moneyline

• Spurs: +370
• Timberwolves: -485

Total

• 233.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Spurs vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 9
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports (Local), NBA League Pass
• Spurs record: 26-35
• Timberwolves record: 36-29

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Spurs Injury Report

• Charles Bassey – out
• David Duke Jr. – out
• Harrison Ingram – out
• Riley Minix – out
• Victor Wembanyama – out

Timberwolves Injury Report

• Luka Garza – questionable
• Rudy Gobert – questionable

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets

San Antonio Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

• Stephon Castle OVER 15.5 Points (-125)

Rookie Stephon Castle is showing that he can be a star in this league this month.

Over his last five games, Castle is averaging 24.0 points on 18.2 shots per game, shooting a solid 51.6 percent from the field and 30.3 percent from beyond the arc. He’s cleared this line in each of those games, despite coming off the bench in all of them.

The Spurs are likely out of the play-in chase in the West, so it makes sense for them to keep running offense through Castle to allow him to develop as a scorer in his first NBA season. 

Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

• Julius Randle OVER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135)

While the potential return of Rudy Gobert could limit Randle in the rebounding department, he’s been stuffing the stat sheet since returning from injury.

Over his last four games, Randle has nine, 13, 19, and 19 rebounds and assists, averaging 8.5 boards and 6.5 dimes per game. Overall, the two-time All-NBA selection is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game this season, putting him right in the mix for this prop. 

Since the Spurs are dead last in the NBA in rebounding percentage over their last 10 games, I could see Randle having another big game on the glass tonight. Adding the assists into the mix gives bettors a little cushion in case Gobert returns and eats into that rebounding workload. 

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

After going 5-8 without Randle in the lineup, the Wolves are 4-0 since he returned, with three wins by double digits.

I’m buying them on Sunday against a Spurs team that has struggled on the road this season, going 10-13 against the spread as a road underdog while ranking 20th in the NBA in net rating in road games. 

Without Victor Wembanayama, the Spurs are a much weaker team on defense – and on the glass – while also lacking their top option for scoring the ball. 

That’s going to be an issue against a Minnesota team that is one of the 10 best in the league in defensive rating this season. The Wolves also have a pretty great replacement for Gobert (should he sit again) in Naz Reid.

The Spurs, who are just 5-10 in the 15 games that Wemby has missed this season, have struggled as of late, going 3-7 in their last 10 while falling to 10-20 straight up on the road. 

I’ll lay the points with Minnesota as it aims to pick up a fifth straight win. 

Pick: Timberwolves -10.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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