Taylor Fritz vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon Round 3

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the match between Taylor Fritz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Round 3 at Wimbledon.

Taylor Fritz is favored to advance to Round 4. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

American Taylor Fritz won a thrilling five-set match against Gabriel Diallo in the second round at Wimbledon, advancing to the third round for the fourth time in his career.

Fritz made the quarterfinals in 2024, and he now has a tough third-round matchup against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. 

These two have matched up five times in their careers, with Davidovich Fokina winning three of them, although he did lose to Fritz on grass earlier this year. 

Can the American take advantage as a favorite in Round 3? 

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to this spot and my prediction. 

Taylor Fritz vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Taylor Fritz: -330
• Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: +245

Total 

• 39.5 (Over -125/Under -115)

Taylor Fritz vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina How to Watch

• Date: Friday, July 4
• Time: 6:00 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Taylor Fritz: How Did They Get Here

Fritz has thrived at Wimbledon in his career, going to the quarterfinals twice, but he’s had a tough path so far in 2025.

He lost the first two sets in his first-round matchup before rallying to win three in a row to advance. Then, he went to five sets against Diallo again in the second round before securing another victory.

Does he go the distance again in Round 3? 

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: How Did They Get Here

Davidovich Fokina – the No. 26 player in the world – won in straight sets in the first round before he beat Botic van de Zandschulp in four sets in the second round. 

The 26-year-old has one other third-round appearance at Wimbledon (2023), but he has never made it past that round in his career. 

Taylor Fritz vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina What the Odds Say and Prediction

Based on the latest odds of Fritz -330, the American has an implied probability of 76.74 percent to advance to the fourth round for the second straight year at Wimbledon. 

As for my best bet, I’m not picking a side. 

The OVER in this match is an absolute no-brainer bet for me.

Fritz is the No. 5-ranked player in the world, but he has been forced to face a gauntlet so far at Wimbledon, and things won’t get any easier with Davidovich Fokina up next.

Davidovich Fokina has the advantage over Fritz in their career meetings, although Fritz has won their lone meeting on grass.

I expect this match to go at least four sets, which would immediately put this in jeopardy of going OVER the total number of games. Fritz played 59 games in Round 1 and 50 games in Round 2. 

Pick: OVER 39.5 Games (-125 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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