Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon Semifinal

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz match in the semifinals at Wimbledon.

Carlos Alcaraz is favored to reach the Wimbledon Final. / Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Two-time defending Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz is back in the semifinals and set to defend his title against world No. 5 Taylor Fritz.

Oddsmakers have set Alcaraz as a sizable favorite in Friday’s semifinal match, and he is 2-0 against Fritz in their limited meetings against each other in their respective careers.

However, Fritz has been impressive at Wimbledon in 2025, making his first appearance in a semifinal at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.

There’s a chance that we could see a third edition of Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon Final, but both players would need to win in the semis on Friday to make it happen.

Can Alcaraz continue his title defense? Or, will Fritz add a signature win to his resume after a runner up showing at the U.S. Open in 2024? 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, each player’s path to the semis and my prediction for Friday's match. 

Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Taylor Fritz: +400
• Carlos Alcaraz: -575

Total

• 37.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

• Date: Friday, July 11
• Time: 8:30 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Taylor Fritz: How Did They Get Here

Fritz made the quarters at Wimbledon in 2022 and 2024, but this is his first appearance in a semifinal in his career.

The American won in the quarterfinals over Karen Khachanov in four sets, but his path to the semifinal has been filled with ups and downs. Fritz needed five sets in Round 1 (after dropping the first two) and Round 2 to advance to Round 3, but he has picked up his play since then.

The No. 5 player in the world has dropped just two sets since, and he’s certainly playing at a high level ahead of this meeting with Alcaraz.

Fritz has not beaten the Spaniard in his career, but they have not faced off yet in 2025. 

Carlos Alcaraz: How Did They Get Here?

Alcaraz is in his third straight semifinal, and he’s won at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in back-to-back years.

This year, he’s had some high notes at Wimbledon – like defeating Cameron Norrie in straight sets in the quarterfinals – and some low notes – like going the distance in Round 1 before winning the fifth set 6-1. 

Alcaraz is elite on grass, and he’s yet to lose a set to Fritz in their two meetings against each other in their careers. 

After winning the French Open, Alcaraz is looking to take a second straight Grand Slam this week. 

Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds, Fritz doesn’t have much of a chance in Vegas’ eyes to advance to the Final.

At -575, Alcaraz has an implied probability of 85.19 percent to advance, and it makes sense given his career success at Wimbledon.

When it comes to betting on this matchup, I wouldn’t recommend laying the -575 with Alcaraz, but instead looking to the games spread if you believe the Spaniard is going to win.

So far, Alcaraz has been fairly dominant, winning 10 more games than Norrie in the quarterfinal and finishing with six games (or more) won than his opponent in every round since failing to do so in Round 1.

If you’re betting on Fritz here, you’re hoping that he’s able to either take two sets or keep things close in every set. 

I’d much rather bet on Alcaraz to cover the spread if he’s going to win the match, as he’s had several dominant 6-1 showings in this tournament. In his career against Fritz, Alcaraz has won all four sets. 

Pick: Alcaraz -5.5 Games (-130 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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