Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Divisional Round

Iain MacMillan | Jan 14, 2025

The Chiefs are 8.5-point home favorites to the Texans in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will begin their playoff bid for a three-peat on Saturday afternoon when they welcome the Houston Texans to Arrowhead.

Few people gave the Texans much of a chance in the Wild-Card Round, but they looked as impressive as they have all season en route to a convincing win against the Chargers. They have a much tougher challenge ahead of them in the Divisional Round. Do they have a chance to pull off a second straight upset?

Let's find out what the oddsmakers think.

Texans vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Texans +8.5 (-110)
• Chiefs -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Texans +370
• Chiefs -480

Total

• OVER 41.5 (-112)
• UNDER 41.5 (-108)

Texans vs. Chiefs How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, January 18
• Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
• Texans record: 10-7
• Chiefs record: 15-2

Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

• Chiefs are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games vs. Texans
• The OVER is 4-1 in the Texans' last five games played in Kansas City
• Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played in January
• Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games
• The UNDER is 5-1 in the Chiefs' last six games
• The Chiefs have won 11-straight home games
• Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games

Texans vs. Chiefs Injury Reports

Texans Injury Report

• Shaq Mason, G - Out
• Cade Stover, TE - IR
• Tank Dell, WR - IR
• Teagan Quitoriano, TE - IR-R
• Jamal Hill, LB - IR

Chiefs Injury Report

• Marlon Tuipulotu, DT - IR
• Chamarri Conner, S - Questionable
• Jaylen Watson, CB - IR-R
• Jawaan Taylor, OT - Questionable
• Chris Joens, DT - Questionable

Texans vs. Chiefs Key Players to Watch

Houston Texans

Joe Mixon: The Texans' pass game has struggled since both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell went down with injury so it's key they get their run game going with Joe Mixon. If he can find running lanes, that's going to keep the Texans' offense on the field, and more importantly, keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. He went for 106 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries against the Chargers last week.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes: The Chiefs' quarterback has made a name for himself by becoming seemingly unbeatable in these spots. Big players make big plays in big games and that's what Mahomes has done throughout his career. Can he deliver another postseason win on Saturday?

Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the "Road to Super Bowl 59", I broke down why I'm picking the Texans to not only cover the spread but win this game outright:

I'm going for a couple of home runs in the first game of the divisional round. I have been anti-Chiefs all season, so it's time to put my money where my mouth is. The Chiefs aren't nearly as good as their record is, and now have been overvalued by the betting market. Let's take a look at where they rank in a few key areas heading into this week:

• Net Yards per Play: 20th (-0.2)
• EPA per Play: 9th
• Opponent EPA per Play: 15th
• Success rate: 8th
• Opponent Success rate: 13th
• Red Zone TD%: 22nd
• Opponent Red Zone TD%: 8th
• Third Down Conversion%: 3rd
• Opponent Third Down Conversion%: 27th

Does that look like that makeup of a team that should be this big of a favorite in the divisional round? You're only defense of the Chiefs at this point is that they're the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champions, but if you look at this season in a vacuum, they are ripe to be upset.

The Chiefs' biggest strength is their third down offense. Patrick Mahomes thrives on third down and their offense is third in the NFL in the area. If the Texans can pull off their upset, it'll be because of their third down defense which ranks third in the NFL, keeping teams to converting third downs at a rate of just 35.5%. They're also fourth in opponent EPA on third down and third in opponent third down success rate.

Call me crazy, but I'll take the Texans to pull off the upset.

Pick: Texans +370

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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