Thunder-Pacers NBA Finals Odds Make Drastic Shift After Game 3 (Is Indy Undervalued?)

The Indiana Pacers are up 2-1 in the NBA Finals, but oddsmakers still have them set as underdogs to win the series.

The Pacers are leading the NBA Finals, but they are underdogs in the series odds. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Buckle up, NBA fans, because we have a loooong series ahead in the 2025 NBA Finals.

Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers proved that Game 1 was not a fluke, erasing a five-point deficit early in the fourth quarter to take Game 3 and a 2-1 series lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder.

In NBA Finals history, teams that win Game 1 win the series more than 70% of the time (55 of 88), and the Pacers are right on track to putting themselves amongst those that have gone on to win the title.

Despite Indiana taking a 2-1 series lead, oddsmakers aren't sold on the Pacers winning this series. In the latest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is set as a -220 favorite to win the title. The Pacers are set at +185 to win it all.

Based on implied probability, the Thunder have a 68.75 percent chance to win the title while Indiana sits at just a 35.09 percent chance -- based on these odds.

Even though the Pacers have shocked everyone they've played in their run to the Finals, they're still not getting the full backing of the betting market. That being said, there was a major shift in the odds to win the title after Game 3.

The Thunder entered Game 3 as 5.5-point favorites, and they were -525 at DraftKings to win the series. That series number has been cut by more than half ahead of a critical Game 4 on Friday night.

If there's one thing to watch, it's been how good the Pacers have been on the road in the playoffs. Indy may need to win another road game to secure this series, but it is 7-3 straight up on the road, winning at least one road game in every series this postseason.

After the "correct score" odds before the NBA Finals had the Thunder winning in five games as the most likely outcome, things have shifted dramatically. OKC winning in seven games (+170) has taken that spot while the Pacers are +500 to win the series in six games -- the third-most likely outcome.

OKC is set as a six-point favorite in Game 4 in Indiana as it attempts to even the series.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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