Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 6

The Thunder are favored on the road in Game 6.

The Thunder are road favorites in Game 6. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Denver Nuggets need to win to keep the season alive in Game 6 against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals.

The Nuggets are at home for Game 6, but they have to be frustrated with themselves after losing leads in the fourth quarter in Game 4 and Game 5 to fall behind 3-2 in this best-of-seven series.

Now, the Nuggets are home underdogs in Game 6 against an Oklahoma City team that won 68 games in the regular season and is the odds-on favorite to win the NBA Finals.

The Thunder, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, climbed back from a nine-point deficit late in the fourth quarter in Game 5 at home, and they’ve been playing with a must-win mentality since losing Game 3 in Denver to fall down 2-1 in this matchup.

The Nuggets have played a short rotation in the playoffs, and after going to seven games in the first round, one has to wonder if they’re running into some fatigue in the second round.

Still, Nikola Jokic is a pretty tough player to bet against, especially when he’s getting points at home.

Here’s a breakdown of this Game 6 matchup, including the latest odds, player props to bet and my prediction. 

Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Thunder -4.5 (-115)
• Nuggets +4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Thunder: -198
• Nuggets: +164

Total

• 217.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Thunder vs. Nuggets How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 15
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: OKC leads 3-2

Thunder vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic -- out

Nuggets Injury Report

• DaRon Holmes II – out
• Hunter Tyson – out

Thunder vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 20.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)

In this series, Isaiah Hartenstein has been one of the primary defenders on Jokic, a tough matchup for anyone.

However, Hartenstein is making his impact felt on both ends, averaging 11.8 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. He's finished with 21 or more points and rebounds in four of the five games in this series.

In the lone game that Hartenstein didn’t clear this prop, he had a 10-point, 10-rebound double-double. Since Jokic is playing so many minutes (42 or more in four of the five games in this series), the Thunder need Hartenstein on the floor a ton, which raises his ceiling in this market.

I think the Thunder big man is a little undervalued entering Game 6. 

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Nikola Jokic UNDER 8.5 Assists (-125)

OKC has made a concerted effort to force Jokic to be a scorer and not a passer in this series, and it has worked to this point. 

They’ve held him to just 26 assists in five games in this matchup, well below his season and postseason averages. 

For reference, Jokic averaged over 10 assists per game in the regular season, yet he does not have a game with more than six assists in this series.

I have a hard time backing Jokic at this number, even though he’s still averaging 14.8 potential assists per game in this series. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him fall short of this number again in Game 6. 

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the UNDER is my favorite bet in Game 6: 

Games 1 and 2 of this series were high-scoring affairs, but these teams have not kept that up as the series has gone on.

Games 3, 4 and 5 all finished with 217 or fewer combined points, including a 179-point game in Game 4 in Denver. 

The Nuggets have been playing a very short rotation, so it’s not surprising if fatigue is starting to kick in, especially since they went to seven games in the first round. Meanwhile, OKC was the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA during the regular season, so it should be expected that it can slow down Denver.

While I do lean with the Nuggets to cover in this matchup, I’d rather bet on the total in a matchup that should have a Game 7-like vibe.

Denver needs to win to extend its series, and the Thunder have been playing with their backs against the wall since falling behind 2-1 in Game 3. OKC certainly would love to avoid a Game 7 with Jokic on the other side, but the Nuggets have thrived against the spread as underdogs in the playoffs.

Offense has been at a premium, especially early in games, over the last few matchups in this series. As long as this total remains closer to 220 than 210, I believe the UNDER is the play on Thursday.   

Pick: UNDER 217.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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