Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 3

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Oklahoma City Thunder-Denver Nuggets matchup in Game 3.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a solid prop target in Game 3. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets have played a wild first two games in the Western Conference semifinals, resulting in a 1-1 series tie as things shift to Denver for Game 3 on Friday night.

Denver stormed back in Game 1, getting a go-ahead 3-pointer by Aaron Gordon in the final seconds to pull off a major upset and send a scare down the spines of OKC bettors – and fans – in this series.

Then, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company quelled those fears by putting up a whopping 149 points in a 43-point win in Game 2 to even the series.

The Thunder enter Game 3 as the favorite to win the title (+130 at DraftKings), and they are favored to win Game 3 on the road. 

Can Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, who have won a bunch of close games this postseason, pull off the upset and take control of the series?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this critical Game 3 matchup. 

Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Thunder -4.5 (-110)
• Nuggets +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline 

• Thunder: -205
• Nuggets: +170

Total

• 233.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Thunder vs. Nuggets How to Watch

• Date: Friday, May 9
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Ball Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Tied 1-1

Thunder vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic -- out

Nuggets Injury Report

• DaRon Holmes II -- out

Thunder vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 32.5 Points (-115)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has 31 or more points in each of his last four games, including three games with 33 or more points.

The Thunder star was shooting under 42 percent from the field in his first five playoff games, but he had a dominant showing in Game 2 of this series, shooting 11-for-13 from the field and 11-for-11 from the line to score 34 points in just 30:11. 

The Nuggets don’t have a single player that can really contain SGA one-on-one, and the MVP candidate has taken 24 or more shots in four of his six games this postseason. With that usage, SGA is an easy bet at this number, especially since he averaged 32.7 points per game in the regular season. 

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Russell Westbrook OVER 12.5 Points (-130)

This has been an impressive postseason for Westbrook, who has at least 14 points in every game that he’s been able to finish in these playoffs. 

In Game 2, with Denver struggling and scoring just 106 points, Russ had a strong game. He finished with 19 points on 11 shots in less than 22 minutes.

Russ is averaging 15.0 points per game in eight playoff performances, and that includes the Game 3 against the Los Angeles Clippers where he scored three points in less than nine minutes.

With the Nuggets benching Michael Porter Jr. for Russ down the stretch in some of these games, the former league MVP is worth a look to clear this line once again. 

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Thunder are the bet to make in Game 3. 

Denver won Game 1 of this series in dramatic fashion,but I’m not buying the Nuggets – even at home – at this price in Game 3.

OKC had not played a great offensive game in the postseason until Game 2, as Gilgeous-Alexander had shot the ball pretty poorly (just over 41 percent from the field) in his first five games.

Now, the Thunder appear to have figured out this Denver defense that finished in the bottom 10 in the NBA in defensive rating during the regular season.

As great as Nikola Jokic is, the Nuggets don’t have enough depth to go night in and night out with this Thunder team that is elite on the defensive end of the floor (No. 1 in defensive rating during the regular season).

OKC is also elite as a road favorite, going 23-14-2 against the spread.

The Thunder were up double-digits for a good chunk of Game 1, and they completely dominated Game 2. This price is short enough for bettors to trust them in Game 3 on the road. 

Pick: Thunder -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.