Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Thursday, Oct. 24

Can the Thunder pull off an upset in their season opener?

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The two top teams in the Western Conference from last season face off on Thursday night in Denver. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder – who added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein in the offseason – will look to start their repeat campaign as the No. 1 seed against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets.

These teams had very different offseasons.

OKC traded away Josh Giddey for Caruso and signed Hartenstein, improving one of the best young cores in the NBA. Meanwhile, Denver let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk in free agency while dishing out major extensions to Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. 

The Nuggets rely on internal improvement – mainly from Julian Strawther, Christian Braun, and Peyton Watson – to return to championship form in the 2024-25 season. 

Here’s a breakdown of the opening odds for this game – where Denver is favored – players to watch and my prediction on Thursday. 

Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Thunder +2 (-108)
• Nuggets -2 (-112)

Moneyline

• Thunder: +114
• Nuggets: -135

Total

• 225.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Thunder vs. Nuggets How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 24
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Ball Arena
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Thunder record: 0-0
• Nuggets record: 0-0

Thunder vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

• Kenrich Williams – out
• Isaiah Hartenstein – out
• Jaylin Williams – out
• Nikola Topic – out

Nuggets Injury Report

• DaRon Holmes II -- out
  

Thunder vs. Nuggets Key Players to Watch

Oklahoma City Thunder

Jalen Williams: A Most Improved Player of the Year candidate, Jalen Williams averaged five more points per game from his rookie season to his second season, shooting over 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3. Can he make the leap to becoming an All-Star alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season? 

Denver Nuggets

Jamal Murray: Murray was awarded with a max extension this offseason, but he’s dealt with injuries since the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Murray struggled in the postseason – despite hitting multiple game-winners against the Los Angeles Lakers – and then he turned in an awful showing for Team Canada in the Olympics. If Murray isn’t right, the Nuggets could be in trouble this season. 

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

Denver is traditionally one of the best home teams in the NBA, although it lost three games at home in the second round of the playoffs last season against the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

Still, I can’t get behind the Nuggets as favorites in this game – even with Hartenstein out. 

Denver didn’t look great in the preseason, and Murray already has dealt with a knee issue in the lead-up to the regular season. With a lot of moving pieces behind Jokic in terms of players stepping into bigger roles, I’m not sure Denver is going to click from day one.

The Thunder return a young core that is arguably the best in the NBA, and they don’t necessarily need Hartenstein to still deploy one of the NBA’s deepest lineups. Not having the big man will hurt the Thunder defending Jokic, but will the three-time MVP have enough help to get a win tonight?

I’m not sold.

I think we could see an upset in Denver. 

Pick: Thunder Moneyline (+114)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.