Thunder vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds, Best NBA Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 3

The Thunder are road favorites in Game 3.

The Thunder are favored on the road in Game 3. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Game 3 of the NBA Finals likely will act as a swing game, as things are tied at one game apiece with the series shifting to Indiana on Wednesday night. 

Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers won Game 1 dramatically on his game-winning jumper with 0.3 seconds left, but they were dominated in Game 2, trailing by double figures for most of the contest.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (72 points between Games 1 and 2) got the Oklahoma City Thunder back on track on Sunday night, and now OKC is a -525 favorite to win the title. 

Oddsmakers are expecting the Thunder to handle business in Game 3, as they are 5.5-point favorites on the road. Game 3s have been an issue for the Pacers, as they’re 0-3 straight up, including a 0-2 record at home, in this postseason.

Can they turn that around and re-take the lead in this series?

Let’s break down the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Wednesday’s Game 3. 

Thunder vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Thunder -5.5 (-108)
• Pacers +5.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Thunder: -218
• Pacers: +180

Total

• 228 (Over -112/Under -108)

Thunder vs. Pacers How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, June 11
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Series: Tied 1-1

Thunder vs. Pacers Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic – out

Pacers Injury Report

• Isaiah Jackson – out
• Jarace Walker – out

Thunder vs. Pacers Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jalen Williams UNDER 21.5 Points (-125)

Jalen Williams had 19 points in Game 2 of the Finals, but he’s failed to clear 21.5 points in 11 of his 18 games this postseason.

The Thunder star is shooting just 11-for-34 in this series, and he’s shot under 42 percent from the field since the start of the second round of the playoffs.

While the volume will likely be there for Williams, he only has four games with 22 or more points since the start of the Denver series. I can’t trust him to clear this line – on the road – in Game 3. 

Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet

• Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 8.5 Assists (-145)

So far in this series, Haliburton has just six assists in each of the two games, falling way short of his postseason average of 9.3 assists per game.

The star guard has seen his potential assists fall from 15.4 per game to 14.0 per game in this series, and he’s been playing off the ball quite a bit because of the Thunder scheming to keep him out of actions.

This postseason, OKC is allowing just 21.8 assists per game (the sixth-best mark in the playoffs), and the Thunder are holding opponents to an NBA-best 42.9 percent from the field in the playoffs.

As a result, the Pacers have struggled to convert off of many of Haliburton’s passes, registering just 12 made buckets on 28 assist chances.

I think this number is a little high – even at home – in Game 3. 

Thunder vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Thunder are the bet to make in Game 3: 

Will the Pacers’ Game 3 struggles carry over into the NBA Finals?

While Indiana won Game 1 of this series, the Pacers have fallen behind big in both games, needing a massive second-half run to even pull out Game 1 in the final seconds.

The Thunder shot the ball much better in Game 2, led by an 11-for-21 shooting game from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In addition to that, OKC had a much more balanced attack in Game 2, as Aaron Wiggins, Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams all scored over 15 points. 

The Pacers’ margin for error is extremely thin against this Thunder team, and it’s worth noting that Haliburton has not played at a high enough level overall in this series. Yes, he hit a game-winning shot in Game 1, but he had just two made baskets entering the fourth quarter in Game 2.

The Thunder’s ability to get the ball out of Haliburton’s hands has slowed down the Pacers’ attack a bit, which makes them much easier to defend.

OKC has responded to every challenge so far in the playoffs, and it has an impressive 23-19-2 against the spread record as a road favorite this season. The Pacers, meanwhile, are just 5-6-1 ATS as home underdogs.

I’m buying the Thunder to take a 2-1 series lead on Wednesday night. 

Pick: Thunder -5.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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