Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Best NBA Prop Bets for Western Conference Finals Game 3

The Thunder are favored to take a 3-0 series lead in the Western Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a solid prop target in Game 3. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a chance to take a commanding 3-0 series lead on Saturday night in the Western Conference Finals.

After going the distance in the second round against the Denver Nuggets, the Thunder have dominated the Minnesota Timberwolves to open this series, winning by double digits in both of their games. 

Now, OKC is a road favorite in Game 3 with a chance to all but end the series if it wins. No team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in a best-of-seven series. 

Minnesota lost only two games in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but it has struggled to generate offense against the No. 1 defense in the NBA. Can the Wolves bounce back at home and put some pressure on OKC?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my best bet for Game 3. 

Thunder vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Thunder -2.5 (-112) 
• Timberwolves +2.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Thunder: -142
• Timberwolves: +120

Total

• 218 (Over -112/Under -108)

Thunder vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, May 24
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Series: OKC leads 2-0

Thunder vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic – out

Timberwolves Injury Report

• None to report

Thunder vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 6.5 Assists (-125)

This postseason, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has really stepped up as a passer, averaging 6.7 assists per game on 15.6 potential assists per night.

He’s been awesome as a playmaker in this series, averaging 8.5 dimes per game (on 13.0 potential assists), dishing out nine in Game 1 and eight in Game 2.

Now, SGA’s supporting cast has struggled at times to make shots, but the Thunder are firing on all cylinders in the Western Conference Finals, scoring over 110 points in each of their games.

I’m buying SGA to clear this number again, as he’s picked up seven or more assists in seven of his 13 playoff games in 2025. 

Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

• Donte DiVincenzo UNDER 9.5 Points (-120)

All postseason long, Donte DiVincenzo has struggled shooting the ball, and this series is no different.

DiVincenzo is shooting just 6-for-22 from the field, scoring nine points in Game 1 and eight points in Game 2.

Through 12 playoff games, the veteran guard is averaging just 8.1 points in 26.0 minutes per game, shooting a terrible 32.1 percent from the field and 25.7 percent from 3. He’s only scored 10 or more points twice.

 I can’t get behind DiVincenzo at this number, even though he’s had pretty decent usage in this Wolves offense. 

Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I like OKC to take a 3-0 series lead: 

The Thunder have simply outclassed the Timberwolves in this series, especially on the defensive end of the floor. 

OKC has given up just 191 points through two games, forcing 33 turnovers in the process. If the Wolves are going to allow the Thunder a chance to get out and run off of steals and other turnovers, they’re going to struggle against this team.

Plus, OKC’s supporting cast has been better than it was in the Denver series, giving Shai Gilgeous-Alexander some much-needed support on the offensive end. Jalen Williams is averaging 22.5 points per game in the series and Chet Holmgren had a huge 22-point game in Game 2. 

Minnesota has been a solid defensive team all season – and in the playoffs – but the Wolves’ lack of production from Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo and others is extremely concerning against the league’s No. 1 defense.

Plus, OKC held Julius Randle to just six points in Game 2, an ominous sign for this Minnesota offense going forward. 

Originally I thought the Wolves would hang around in this series, but the Thunder defense is proving to be far and away the best unit left in the playoffs. OKC is 23-17-2 against the spread as a road favorite this season and 2-0 ATS in this series. 

It can cover this short spread on Saturday night. 

Pick: Thunder -2.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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