Tigers vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for ALDS Game 5

Cal Raleigh and the Mariners face off against the Tigers in a winner-take-all Game 5 on Friday night.

Cal Raleigh and the Mariners face off against the Tigers in a winner-take-all Game 5 on Friday night. / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers in Game 5 of the ALDS with a trip to the ALCS on the line.

Detroit took Game 1 in Seattle before the Mariners won the next two, and took an early 3-0 lead in Game 4. The Tigers came back for a 9-3 win, though, forcing this winner-take-all Game 5.

Tarik Skubal will once again start in Game 5 after the Tigers wasted his outing in Game 2. The Mariners had yet to name a starter as of Thursday afternoon, with both George Kirby (2 ER, 6 H, BB, 8 Ks in 5 IP in Game 1) and Luis Castillo (0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 3 Ks in 4.2 IP in Game 2) as potential options.

Who will advance to the ALCS?

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Tigers vs. Mariners on Tuesday afternoon.

Tigers vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Tigers -1.5 (+141)
• Mariners +1.5 (-172)

Moneyline

• Tigers -143
• Mariners +118

Total

• 6 (Over -101/Under -120)

Tigers vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

• Tigers: Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA)
• Mariners: TBD

Tigers vs. Mariners How to Watch

• Date: Friday, October 10
• Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Mariners record: 90-72 (2-2)
• Tigers record: 87-75 (4-3)

Tigers vs. Mariners Best MLB Prop Bets

Mariners Best MLB Prop Bet

• Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-167)

I understand that Tarik Skubal is starting for the Tigers, and he’ll probably go as long as his arm lets him. But setting a Hits + Runs + RBI line at 0.5 for one of the best hitters in the game? I have to take advantage.

Everyone knows about Raleigh’s power with his 60 home runs and 125 RBI, but he hit a career-best .247 this season as well. He’s kept that up in the playoffs with a hit in each of the first four games of the series (7 for 16, .438), with four RBI and runs scored to boot.

Raleigh is only 2 for 12 in his career against Skubal, but one of those was a home run. The switch-hitting catcher thrived against left-handed pitching this season, hitting .281 with a 6.82 slugging percentage as opposed to .231 and .547 against right-handed pitching.

This could be a low scoring game, and I’d still take this. Raleigh hit this line in seven straight games now and at a rate of 73% on the year.

Tigers vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Skubal had a sparkling 2.21 ERA this season, but he would've kept it under 2.00 (1.99, to be exact) had he not pitched against the Mariners. He allowed seven runs in 10.2 innings of work against the Mariners, with a home run in each game.

Seattle won both of those games, and it also stole Game 2 when the Tigers could’ve taken a commanding series lead.

The Mariners went 51-30 at home this season while the Tigers were just 41-40 on the road. Furthermore, Seattle was 27-20 vs. LHP (63-52 vs. RHP) on the year, so its performance against Skubal makes a bit of sense.

Whether it’s Castillo or Kirby to start for the Mariners, they’ll both be used (if needed) in Game 5. They’ll also have Matt Brash and Andres Munoz on two full days rest after not pitching in Game 4, with Brash throwing 13 pitches in Game 3 and Munoz tossing just nine.

Skubal is the better starting pitcher, but the Mariners have his number and the depth to get it done at home. If you want to play it safe and think it could be close, I don’t hate taking the Mariners on the +1.5 at this -173 price.

Pick: Mariners Moneyline (+118)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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