Timberwolves vs. Lakers Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 1

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Minnesota Timberwolves-Los Angeles Lakers matchup in Game 1.

The Lakers are favored in Game 1 against the Timberwolves. / Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images

Luka Doncic will make his postseason debut with the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday night, as L.A. hosts the No. 6-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the playoffs.

Los Angeles played some inspired basketball over the second half of the season, locking up the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, but it has a tough matchup against a Wolves team that made the Western Conference Finals last season.

There’s a big thing to watch in this series: How will Minnesota match the Lakers’ small-ball lineups?

NBA fans remember Doncic dancing on Rudy Gobert in the Western Conference Finals last season, and Los Angeles may aim to target that matchup even more if Gobert is on the floor against the Lakers’ lineups that have Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt playing the center spot.

Will Chris Finch go small to combat this? It’s an interesting chess move, and we’ll see how the adjustments play out in Game 1.

The Lakers are favored in this matchup, and they dominated all season long at home, going 31-10. 

This should be one of the best series in the first round, and bettors should expect a close game based on the latest line. Here’s a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my game prediction for Saturday’s matchup. 

Timberwolves vs. Lakers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Timberwolves +4 (-108)
• Lakers -4 (-112)

Moneyline

• Timberwolves: +154
• Lakers: -185

Total

• 216 (Over -108/Under -112)

Timberwolves vs. Lakers How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, April 19
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Crypto.com Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Timberwolves record: 49-33
• Lakers record: 50-32

Timberwolves vs. Lakers Injury Reports

Timberwolves Injury Report

• None to report

Lakers Injury Report

• LeBron James – probable
• Maxi Kleber – out

Timberwolves vs. Lakers Best NBA Prop Bets

Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

• Naz Reid OVER 11.5 Points (-115)

I think Naz Reid is going to have a massive role in the Minnesota-Los Angeles series, mainly because the Lakers would prefer to go small with Rui Hachimura or Jarred Vanderbilt on the floor as their center.

That’s going to make it tough for the Wolves to play a ton of minutes with Rudy Gobert on the floor, and it sets up well for small-ball lineups with Reid or Julius Randle as the five man. 

Reid – the reigning Sixth Man of the Year – averaged 14.2 points per game for the Wolves in the regular season, shooting 46.2 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from beyond the arc. 

He’s had two games where he’s cleared this line against the Lakers during the regular season.

If Minnesota wants to be able to match up with the Lakers' “death” lineup, playing Reid at the five is their best bet. With Edwards and Julius Randle viewed as the clear top options in this offense, I think Reid is being undervalued with this line set well below his season average. 

Los Angeles Lakers Best NBA Prop Bet

• LeBron James UNDER 6.5 Assists (+105)

The four-time champion finished the regular season averaging 8.2 assists per game, but I’m not buying him in this matchup as a secondary creator playing off of Doncic.

LeBron saw his assist numbers take a hit after the All-Star break – averaging just 6.5 per game – and he failed to clear this in multiple matchups with the Timberwolves in the 2024-25 campaign. Minnesota ranks fifth in the NBA in opponent assists per game, and it’s worth noting that LeBron’s potential assists per game have dropped from over 16 per game before the All-Star break to just 11.9 since. 

Timberwolves vs. Lakers Prediction and Pick

This may be the hardest series to bet in the West, as both of these teams have elite qualities.

Minnesota – fourth in net rating this season – is one of the best defensive teams in the league and has a ton of length that it can throw at Doncic in an attempt to make his life tougher. But, will Finch be willing to bench Gobert if that’s what this series calls for?

Meanwhile, the Lakers have two of the greatest basketball IQ players of all time in Doncic and James, and they’re both tough to consider fading in the first round, given all of their postseason success.

When it comes to Game 1, I lean with the Lakers to win and cover, as they’ve been utterly dominant at home all season long. Not only did they go 31-10 straight up, but they’re 21-11 against the spread as home favorites as well.

The Lakers haven’t played a Game 1 at home in the playoffs in quite some time, since the team was a play-in team in each of the last two seasons and forced to play in the bubble in the 2019-20 season when it won the title. 

Minnesota closed the season on a high note, but the Timberwolves were just 20-26 straight up in clutch games (games within five points in the final five minutes) while the Lakers were 23-16.

With a spread this close and Los Angeles’ home prowess, I think L.A. is the bet to make here. It’ll be very interesting to see the lineups/adjustments from these two teams in Game 1 to help us handicap Game 2 and the rest of the series. 

Pick: Lakers -4 (-112 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.