Timberwolves vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets for Game 1 (Target Chet Holmgren, Naz Reid, SGA)

Breaking down the best prop bets for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves.

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren is a solid prop target in Game 1. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The NBA’s Western Conference Finals get underway on Tuesday night, and there are plenty of stars to bet on in the prop market.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, and Chet Holmgren all will likely be popular prop targets in this series, and two of those players are on my mind in Game 1.

The Thunder enter this matchup as 7.5-point favorites, but they only covered the spread in two of seven games in the second round. So, why not turn to some props in Game 1 to get a feel for this series?

Here’s a full breakdown of each of the picks for Tuesday’s Game 1.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Timberwolves vs. Thunder

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Chet Holmgren OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-135)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-120)
• Naz Reid OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-140)

Chet Holmgren OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-135)

Chet Holmgren has been great on the glass in the playoffs, averaging 9.7 boards per game overall.

He picked up 11 or more rebounds in five of his seven games against Denver in the second round, and I expect him to be a huge piece of OKC’s rotation in this series since the Wolves can play some pretty big lineups with Rudy Gobert, Randle, and Naz Reid. 

Holmgren is averaging 17.3 rebound chances per game in the playoffs, and I think this line is a massive value considering how important he was on the glass against Denver. Chet has cleared 8.5 boards in seven of 11 playoff games this season.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-120)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why SGA may be undervalued, even against one of the six-best defenses in the NBA: 

SGA has cleared 31.5 points in five of his 11 playoff games this season, averaging just a tick under 30 points per game.

However, he really picked things up in the closing games of the Denver series, scoring 31 or more points in Games 5, 6 and 7. Now, he has a matchup against a Timberwolves team that he gave some problems to in the regular season. 

In four meetings with the Wolves, SGA finished with 40, 24, 37 and 39 points. In the game he was held to 24 points, he shot just 6-for-21 from the field, but he shot 54.0 percent or better in the other three games.

Things have been a little tougher in the playoffs for SGA with teams packing their defenses in to take away his driving lanes, but he’s still one of the best one-on-one scorers in the league.

I don’t think he’ll score 40, but this prop is set below his season average. Until Minnesota proves that it can slow SGA down, he’s worth a look in this market. The MVP candidate has attempted 20.9 shots per game in the playoffs, including eight games with 19 or more shot attempts. 

Naz Reid OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-140)

Naz Reid faded at points in the second round as a scorer, failing to reach double figures in the final three games against Golden State.

However, he has shot the 3-ball well in the playoffs (46.7 percent), knocking down multiple shots from beyond the arc in six of his 10 games.

During the regular season, Reid had three games (out of four) against OKC with two or more made shots from beyond the arc. While he may have a smaller role in some of those games since Julius Randle is healthy, Reid still has taken 4.5 3s per game in the playoffs.

He’s worth a shot in this market in Game 1.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.