Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds for French Open Quarterfinals (Alcaraz Expected to Advance)

Betting odds for the French Open quarterfinal between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz on Tuesday afternoon.

Carlos Alcaraz is favored to advance in the French Open. / Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

The men’s quarterfinals are set in the 2025 French Open, and No. 12 Tommy Paul (USA) will take on Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz (the No. 2 player in the world) with a trip to the semifinals on the line. 

This will be the seventh time these two players have faced off against each other, and Alcaraz has a 4-2 edge in their head-to-head meetings. As a result, oddsmakers have set him as a sizable favorite to advance to the semifinals, even though Paul made quick work of No. 25 Alexei Popyrin in the fourth round.

Here’s a look at the odds, history between these players and more for the French Open quarterfinals. 

Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Tommy Paul: +800
• Carlos Alcaraz: -1200

Total Games

• 32.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, June 3
• Time: 2:15 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): TBS/truTV/TNT

Tommy Paul: How Did They Get Here?

Paul’s path to the quarterfinals hasn't exactly been dominant, even though he did beat Popyrin in straight sets in the fourth round to advance.

The American knocked off Elmer Møller in the first round on Sunday, May 25, after dropping the opening set, and he rallied from down two sets to none in the second round against Márton Fucsovics. Falling behind early could doom Paul against an elite player like Alcaraz, but it’s worth noting that Paul did win the first set in a five-set win over No. 24 Karen Khachanov in the third round.

In his career, Paul had never advanced past the third round at Roland Garros, so this is uncharted territory for the American. 

He’s faced Alcaraz six times, losing four of them, including their last three meetings. Paul last beat Alcaraz back in 2023 in the quarterfinals of the ATP Masters 1000 Canada. They have never met in the French Open in their careers.

Carlos Alcaraz: How Did They Get Here?

The world’s No. 2 player is the defending champion at Roland Garros, and he’s made the quarterfinals for the fourth consecutive year. Alcaraz was dominant in the opening round in 2025, defeating Giulio Zeppieri 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 to advance to the second round.

From there, he ran into a little more trouble, taking four sets to beat unranked Fábián Marozsán in the second round and four sets to beat unranked Damir Džumhur in the third round.

In the fourth round, Alcaraz took the first two sets from No. 13 Ben Shelton (another American), eventually winning the match in four sets. He’s now looking to extend his winning streak against Paul.

The two last met in the Paris Olympics, where Alcaraz won in consecutive sets. Before that, their other meeting in 2024 was at Wimbledon, where Alcaraz dropped the opening set before rallying to win three in a row. 

Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz: What the Odds Say

Based on these odds, Alcaraz is a near lock to advance to the semifinals, but betting on him at -1200 isn’t exactly a smart play.

Bettors may want to consider taking Alcaraz in the futures market to win the French Open (he’s currently +110) rather than simply advance to the semis. As for Paul, he does have two previous wins against Alcaraz, so an upset certainly is possible.

The implied probability associated with these odds gives Alcaraz a 92.31 percent chance to win on Tuesday. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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