Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets and Props Today (How to Bet Lightning vs. Panthers Game 4)

Iain MacMillan | Apr 28, 2025

The Panthers are home favorites to the Lightning in Game 4. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The NHL Playoffs continue and we have just two games to bet on tonight.

The Tampa Bay Lightning will face the Florida Panthers in Game 4 with the Panthers holding the 2-1 series lead. In the Western Conference, we have a 2-2 series tie with it going back to Dallas tonight for a pivotal Game 5.

Let's dive into my best bets for tonight's slate.

Top NHL Bets Today

• Panthers (-145) vs. Lightning via Caesars
• Avalanche (-140) vs. Stars via BetMGM
• Nathan MacKinnon OVER 4.5 Shots on Goal (+126) via DraftKings

Lightning vs. Panthers Prediction

The Panthers, as they've been all season, have been the better team in advanced metrics. So far this series, the Panthers have an expected goal differential of +0.46 per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. The Panthers' weakness in the final stretch of the season was their ability to put the puck in the net, but that issue seems to have been fixed in the playoffs. They have a strong 12.16 shooting percentage against the Lightnings.

Now that they return to their home ice, they're in a great spot to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Pick: Panthers -145

Avalanche vs. Stars Prediction

The Stars have a real issue with their shooting. They are the worst shooting team so far in the playoffs, scoring on just 6.14% of their shots on goal. Jake Oettinger has not played well enough to make up for his team's poor shooting performances, sporting a save percentage of just .905.

It's not just the simple statistics that the Avalanche have the advantage in, they have also created 2.23 more high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. Despite being on the road, I still think they're the right side to back in tonight's Game 5.

Pick: Avalanche -140

Avalanche vs. Stars Prop Bet

Nathan MacKinnon continues to crank up his level of play in the playoffs. He has averaged six shots on goal per game so far this series, yet the OVER on 4.5 shots on goal is set at a tempting price of +126 tonight.

The Stars have allowed 31.22 shots on goal per 60 minutes so far this postseason, the third most amongst all playoff teams.

Pick: OVER 4.5 Shots On Goal +126

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!