Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Bet the OVER in Lightning vs. Canucks)

Iain MacMillan | Dec 8, 2024

Bet the OVER in the NHL showdown between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Vancouver Canucks. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

It's been a roller coaster of an NHL season for Top Shelf Picks. We started the season red-hot then went on a cold streak like none other but have since begun a second hot streak. I went 2-1 in the latest edition of Top Shelf Picks and followed that up with a 3-0 sweep on Saturday with the picks I gave out on my Twitter.

Despite Sunday being packed with NFL games, we will still try to find some betting value on today's NHL slate. Let's dive into it.

• Season-to-date record: 71-54-4 (+11.93 units)

Best NHL Picks Today

• Lightning vs. Canucks OVER 6 (-110) via BetMGM
• Utah Hockey Club -110 vs. Flyers via BetMGM
• Flames +198 vs. Stars via FanDuel

Lightning vs. Canucks Prediction

We're keeping things pretty straightforward for this afternoon's showdown between the Lightning and Canucks. Throw the advanced analytics out the window, these two teams are two of the best shooting teams in the NHL. The Lightning rank second in shooting percentage at 13.58% and the Canucks rank fourth at 12.37%.

As a result, they're combining for an average of 6.99 goals per 60 minutes of play so with the total set at 6.0 in this interconference duel, I'll back the OVER.

Pick: OVER 6 (-110)

Utah vs. Flyers Prediction

Utah is 11-11-4 on the season but I continue to be convinced they're better than their record shows. They rank inside the top half of the NHL in most metrics including coming in at 12th in CORSI% and eighth in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage. They've had some issues on special teams, but they have been one of the better teams in the league during 5-on-5 play.

They deserve to be favorites against a Flyers team that has little to offer. Philadelphia may have a better record, but they rank 28th and 23rd in the two metrics cited above. I evaluate Utah as the better hockey team therefore will take them at pick'em odds in Philadelphia.

Pick: Utah -110

Flames vs. Stars Prediction

I'm not going to make the argument the Flames are a better hockey team than the Stars, but I don't think they're bad enough to be almost two-to-one underdogs in Dallas. The Flames rank 11th in CORSI% and 16th in expected goals percentage this season. They have had some significant shooting issues, ranking 31st in that stat, which would keep me away from betting on them at shorter odds, but we see enough variance in shooting metrics to convince me that they're worth a shot as a +198 underdog against the Stars.

Let's hope Dustin Wolf (.918 save percentage) gets the start for Calgary tonight.

Pick: Flames +198

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!