Troy vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 20, 2025

Feb 11, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) celebrates during the second half against the Tennessee Volunteers at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Kentucky will look to start an NCAA Tournament run under first-year head coach Mark Pope against No. 14 seed Troy, the Sun Belt Champions.

The Wildcats have had to deal with injuries all season, but the potent awesome of the Wildcats is a formidable favorite in its first-round game against the Trojans. Can the team take care of business and advance out of the first round? 

Here’s our betting preview.  

Troy vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Troy: +11.5 (-115)
• Kentucky: -11.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Troy: +1160
• Kentucky: -2800

Total: 152.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Troy vs. Kentucky How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 21st
• Game Time: 7:10 PM EST
• Venue: Fiserv Forum
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Troy Record: 23-10
• Kentucky Record: 22-11

Troy vs. Kentucky Key Players to Watch

Troy

Tayton Conerway: The lead guard for the Trojans offense is a force at getting to the rim and opening up shots for the rest of the roster, leading the Sun Belt in assist rate this season. Can he navigate a compact Kentucky defense? 

Kentucky

Otega Oweh: The Oklahoma transfer has come on strong amidst injuries along the rest of the group, featuring games of 20 or more in six of the last nine games. Troy is a bruising defense, but Oweh welcomes that with a high free throw rate and the ability to step outside and hit the three-point shot. 

Troy vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

This matchup sets up nicely for the Wildcats to win with ease as the team is an elite rebounding one that can offset Troy’s need to win the shot volume battle. 

The Trojans have struggled to step up in class this season, losing to a trio of KenPom top 50 teams by an average margin of 19 this season. 

While Kentucky has defensive issues, I don’t believe it’ll be exposed in this matchup against the Sun Belt champs, who are shooting 30% as a team beyond the arc. The Wildcats are 25th in defensive rebounding rate, which is needed against Troy, who is sixth in the country in offensive rebounding rate. 

Meanwhile, it’s tough to slow down Kentucky’s offense which ranks 21st in effective field goal percentage by scoring from all three levels of the floor. Troy has a sturdy defense, but its inability to contain Oweh’s shot creation will loom large. 

Lay it with Kentucky, who has a ceiling that Troy can’t reach, and should be able to get to. 

PICK: Kentucky -11.5 (-105, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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