Twins vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, July 3

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Minnesota Twins-Miami Marlins series finale on July 3.

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez is an interesting prop target on Thursday. / Brad Mills-Imagn Images

The Miami Marlins had an eight-game streak of winning outright as an underdog snapped on Wednesday, as they fell 2-1 to the Minnesota Twins in the second game of their three-game set.

The Miami Marlins have won eight straight games outright as underdogs:

+139 vs. ATL✅
+151 at SF✅
+194 at SF✅
+155 at SF✅
+146 at AZ✅
+142 at AZ✅
+163 at AZ✅
+128 vs. MIN✅

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) July 2, 2025

Now, Miami and Minnesota play an afternoon tilt on Thursday, July 3 with a couple of young arms on the mound.

25-year-old David Festa is on the bump for the Twins in this rubber match while Eury Perez will make his fifth appearance of the season for Miami after missing the entire 2024 campaign due to Tommy John surgery.

Perez has yet to work five innings in a single start this season, but the Marlins are 2-2 in his four outings. Can they pull off a win in this series finale?

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Thursday afternoon’s action. 

Twins vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Twins -1.5 (+143)
• Marlins +1.5 (-175)

Moneyline

• Twins: -119
• Marlins: -102

Total

• 8 (Over -106/Under -114)

Twins vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

• Minnesota: David Festa (2-2, 5.40 ERA)
• Miami: Eury Perez (0-2, 6.19 ERA)

Twins vs. Marlins How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, July 3
• Time: 12:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: loanDepot park
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network
• Twins record: 41-45
• Marlins record: 38-46

Twins vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

• Eury Perez UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-160)

There’s no doubt that the Marlins are being safe with their young starter in his return from Tommy John, and that really lowers his ceiling when it comes to any outs recorded prop.

In four appearances in 2025, Perez has thrown 3.0, 4.0, 4.2 and 4.1 innings, recording less than 15 outs in all of them. He has not finished five innings of work all season, and the righty only has one start where he’s thrown over 90 pitches. 

That makes him tough to trust, especially since he hasn’t pitched well in 2025 either. Perez has a 6.19 ERA and has given up 14 hits and 10 walks in just 16.0 innings of work. I’d be surprised to see him work into the sixth inning on Thursday. 

Twins vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Even though I’m not sold on Perez working deep into this game, I think he and Festa are pretty comparable when it comes to the starting pitching in this matchup.

Festa enters this start with a 5.40 ERA and an expected ERA of 4.75 – which ranks in the 18th percentile in MLB this season. While the Twins are 4-4 in his eight appearances, the 25-year-old has had some blowup outings, allowing eight runs on two occasions in the month of June.

That makes him hard to trust against a Marlins team that is rolling at the moment, winning eight of its last 10 games while ranking fifth in MLB in runs scored and 10th in OPS over the last week.

Miami is under .500 at home this season, but it has been on a wicked streak winning outright as an underdog. The Twins, on the other hand, are nine games under .500 on the road in 2025. 

Since these bullpens are ranked right next to each other in ERA (Miami is 4.29, Minnesota is 4.28), I don’t mind taking a shot on the Marlins as underdogs again in this series finale. 

Pick: Marlins Moneyline (-102 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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