Twins vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 13

Minnesota enters Tuesday's road series against Baltimore as an underdog despite having won eight straight.

Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton is a hot home run prop target against Baltimore's Cade Povich on Tuesday. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles meet for the second time in as many weeks on Tuesday, May 13, in a clash between two underwhelming AL clubs looking to build momentum in their respective divisions.

Despite a slow start to 2025, Minnesota has caught fire lately, riding an eight-game win streak and having won 10 of their last 11 heading into Tuesday — a stretch that includes a home sweep of the Orioles last week. 

Minnesota will hand the ball to the settling 23-year-old right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson (2-2, 4.01 ERA), while Baltimore counters with second-year lefty Cade Povich (1-3, 5.55 ERA), who’s still seeking consistency in his 2025 campaign.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Tuesday’s matchup.

Twins vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Run Line

• Twins +1.5 (-192)
• Orioles -1.5  (+158)

Moneyline

• Twins (+108)
• Orioles (-126)

Total

• Over 9 (-112)
• Under 9 (-108)

Twins vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

• Minnesota: Simeon Woods Richardson (2-2, 4.01 ERA)
• Baltimore: Cade Povich (1-3, 5.55 ERA)

Twins vs. Orioles How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, May 13
• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• How to Watch (TV): MASN2, MNNT
• Twins Record: 21-20
• Orioles Record: 15-24

Twins vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bets

Twins vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bet

• Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Throughout the Twins’ hot streak, Byron Buxton has been the offensive shepherd. The long tenured Minnesota outfielder has popped all nine of his long balls this season in the last 11 games while boasting a .326/.375/.606 slash line. 

He’s posting eye-popping numbers against left-handed pitching this season, batting .346 with a pair of home runs and a .692 slugging percentage.  

While Buxton is swinging often and striking out, when he does make contact, it’s paying dividends. According to Statcast, Buxton ranks within the game’s top 10% in XWOBACON, a metric that measures a player’s expected run production when they make contact with the ball.  In addition to that, he’s in the top 5% in hard hard hit percentage, which is a metric used to measure the rate of balls hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher against the total number of batted balls.

Fortunately for Buxton, he draws a pitcher who has been ice-cold in avoiding hard contact. Povich is among the bottom of the MLB’s pitching personnel in quality of contact rate and expected slug percentage. Plus, his xERA of 6.24 suggests his defense has helped him gain outs amid his contact vulnerabilities this season. 

Twins vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Buxton leads a handful of Minnesota hitters who have been reeling in runs throughout the eight-game win streak. Harrison Bader is hitting .444 while Trevor Larnach has collected 18 total bases along with eight hits apiece from Carlos Correa and Brooks Lee. 

There’s plenty of work ahead to climb back to within an adequate offensive standing in the game, but Baltimore’s inconsistencies are still too conspicuous to ignore. The Orioles are ranked No. 26 overall in both average and on-base percentage with a .227/.296/.386 slash line. 

What’s more is how much their failure has related to strikeouts: The O’s strikeout at a 24.3% rate per FanGraphs and are whiffing at a 26.1% clip per Statcast, ranking them in the bottom 10 teams in both metrics. 

Adley Rutschman is battling through the roughest stretch of his career, hitting .206 on the season, while Gunnar Henderson is a far cry from the batting sensation he established himself as since winning AL Rookie of the Year and a Silver Slugger award two seasons ago. Henderson has dropped from Statcast’s dark red quality of contact averages to a shade of pale powder blue.

Woods Richardson doesn’t present a squeaky clean batted balls profile, but he’s strung together enough sound starts to bring momentum against this struggling O’s lineup. Besides, the Twins’ pitching staff has raised itself to a 3.33 ERA, the No. 4 overall ERA in baseball.

Pick: Twins (+110 at BetMGM)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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