UCF vs. Arizona Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Jan. 11

Reed Wallach | Jan 11, 2025

Dec 30, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love (1) celebrates a three-point basket with his teammates Arizona Wildcats guard Jaden Bradley (0) and Arizona Wildcats forward Carter Bryant (3) during the first half of the game against the TCU Horned Frogs at McKale Center. Mandatory Credit: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images / Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

Arizona continues to profile as a far better team than the 9-5 record states, and we are starting to see the team round into form in Big 12 play, winners of all three league games thus far. 

The team will face UCF on Saturday night, one of the more mercurial teams in the Big 12, capable of winning at Texas Tech but also losing by 51 points at home to Kansas. How will the Knights travel to the desert and matchup against Arizona as a big underdog? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

UCF vs. Arizona Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• UCF: +16.5 (-102)
• Arizona:  -16.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• UCF: +1000
• Arizona: -2100

Total: 154.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

UCF vs. Arizona How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, January 11th
• Game Time: 10:00 PM EST
• Venue: McKale Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• UCF Record: 11-3
• Arizona Record: 9-5

UCF vs. Arizona Key Players to Watch

UCF

Keyshawn Hall: The George Mason transfer forward has been playing at a high level for the Knights, averaging nearly 16 points and seven rebounds on the year. However, Hall is a bit of a snapshot of the UCF offense, shooting only 40% from the field. The Knights offense has struggled to score efficiently all season, far more reliant on turning its defense into offense.

Arizona

Caleb Love: The fifth year guard is a streaky one, but has some high upside, evident in his 33-point effort against TCU to start Big 12 play. Love followed that up with back-to-back low output efforts, scoring 21 combined points. Which guard will we see on Saturday night?

UCF vs. Arizona Prediction and Pick

Arizona has been able to beat up on lesser opponents this season, but UCF’s press defense may give the shaky ball handling of the Wildcats some trouble at times. 

While this game should feature plenty of possessions, I can’t trust the Knights offense that is 251st in the nation in effective field goal percentage. The team has size to match Arizona’s big frontcourt, but not as efficient as the Wildcats interior defense that is 26th in the country in two-point field goal percentage allowed. 

UCF wants to play fast, but it doesn’t play very efficiently as the team is far too reliant on getting hot from distance and getting to the free throw line, 18th in the country in percentage of points generated from the free throw line. 

However, Arizona is a strong transition team and doesn’t foul much at all. Further, the Wildcats should dictate the terms of this game by scoring in bunches with UCF’s shaky defensive rebounding marks, ranking outside the top 300 nationally. 

My target in this game is the UCF team total under as I don’t see many opportunities for UCF to get its preferred method of offense. In two games against top 25 defenses in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, UCF has scored 64 points and 48 points. I see another low scoring output from the Knights in this one. 

PICK: UCF Team Total UNDER 69.5 (-118)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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