UFC 316 Odds: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley Prediction

Iain MacMillan | Jun 6, 2025

Sean O'Malley is a significant underdog against Merab Dvalishvili in the main event of UFC 316. / Craig Kidwell-Imagn Images

This Weekend's UFC 316 is set to be one of the best events of the year. Two championship fights are set to be featured on the main card. Juliana Peña will take on Kayla Harrison for the women's bantamweight belt in the co-main event, and then Merab Dvalishvili will defend his men's bantamweight belt against Sean O'Malley.

O'Malley lost his championship belt to Dvalishvili via unanimous decision at UFC 306 last September, and now he gets his rematch. In the meantime, Dvalishvili defended his belt against Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 311 in January.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this much-anticipated rematch.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Dvalishvili -285
• O'Malley +230

Total Rounds

• OVER 4.5 (-280)
• UNDER 4.5 (+210)

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley Best Bet

It's rare in the UFC for a wrestler to beat a striker by using his grappling in one fight and then to see a different result in the rematch. More often than not, they're able to do exactly the same thing they were able to do the first time, usually even more effectively.

Dvalishvili landed six takedowns against O'Malley in their first fight last year, accumulating a total of 10:03 of control time. O'Malley landed zero takedowns and zero seconds of control time. The American was able to land some strikes at times when the two fighters were on their feet, but any time the Georgian felt danger, he'd take the fight to the mat.

You can lay the juice on Dvalishvili to win again at -285, but if you want to get a bit more aggressive, I think there's a chance he can finish this fight inside the distance, which is available at +450. If he takes control of the fight early, O'Malley may get aggressive to try to turn the tide, leaving an opening for the champ to lock in a finish.

Pick: Dvalishvili To Win via Finish (+450) via DraftKings

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