UNC vs. Duke Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for ACC Tournament Semifinal

Iain MacMillan | Mar 14, 2025

Duke is a 7.5-point favorite against UNC in the ACC semifinals. / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Duke suffered two devestating injuries against Georgia Tech on Thursday and will now be without Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown. Flagg is in contention for the National Player of the Year award and leads the Blue Devils in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks.

Can Duke survive without its star against its rival, UNC? Let's find out what the oddsmakers think and then I'll give my best bets.

UNC vs. Duke Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• UNC +7.5 (-118)
• Duke -7.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• UNC +240
• Duke -300

Total

• OVER 152.5 (-110)
• UNDER 152.5 (-110)

UNC vs. Duke How to Watch

• Date: Friday. March 14
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Spectrum Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• UNC Record: 22-12 (13-7 Conference)
• Duke Record: 29-3 (19-1 Conference)

UNC vs. Duke Best Prop Bets

UNC Prop Bet

• RJ Davis OVER 15.5 Points (-115) via FanDuel

No one in this game has more experience in big games than UNC's senior, RJ Davis. He's already averaging 17.3 points per game and 16.0 points per game against Duke this season. The Blue Devils' defense should be a touch softer with Flagg out of the lineup, so I expect Davis to put up a solid performance.

Duke Prop Bet

• Kon Knueppel OVER 18.5 Points (-114) via FanDuel

Someone has to step up in Flagg's absence if the Blue Devils want to win this game and that's exactly what Kon Knueppel did yesterday against Georgia Tech when his teammate went down. He finished the game with 28 points, shooting 50% from the field. I'm willing to bet he reaches at least 19 points tonight.

UNC vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

It can't be overstated how much Duke will miss Flagg tonight. It's not just his scoring that they'll miss, but he's also their leader in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. This won't be the same team on either side of the court.

The Blue Devils still have enough weapons to avoid the upset, but I have my doubts about them covering the spread against a UNC team that has plenty of talent and skill. The Tar Heels rank 53rd in effective field goal percentage and 158th in defensive efficiency.

Those numbers are enough to convince me they can cover against a banged-up Duke team.

Pick: UNC +7.5 (-118) via BetMGM

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!