UNC vs. Duke Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the UNC-Duke matchup in the Sweet 16 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Duke Blue Devils head coach Kara Lawson. / Cory Knowlton-Imagn Images

For the third time this season, the North Carolina Tar Heels will take on the Duke Blue Devils, only this time there is a trip to the Elite 8 on the line.

North Carolina won the first meeting between these teams at home in overtime, but Duke bounced back with a win in late February by double digits. These squads were on a collision course for this Sweet 16 matchup after earning No. 3 (UNC) and No. 2 (Duke) seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

Oddsmakers have Duke favored in this matchup, but the Blue Devils barely escaped the second round, narrowly beating Oregon, 59-53.

Can UNC pull off the upset and move to the Elite 8?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this Sweet 16 matchup.

UNC vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread

• UNC +5.5 (-110)
• Duke -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• UNC: +194
• Duke: -245

Total

• 124.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

UNC vs. Duke How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 28
• Time: 2:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Legacy Arena at BJCC
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• UNC record: 29-7
• Duke record: 28-7

UNC vs. Duke Key Players to Watch

UNC

Alyssa Ustby: The UNC forward is averaging 10.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game this season while shooting 46.1 percent from the field and 34.7 percent from 3. She had 10 points and 12 boards against Duke earlier this season, but also turned the ball over 11 times. She’ll need to clean that up on Friday.

Duke

Toby Fournier: The freshman forward missed the second-round game against Oregon with an illness, and the Blue Devils are certainly hoping she can return for Friday’s matchup. This season, Fournier leads the Blue Devils in scoring (13.4 points per game) despite coming off the bench in every game she’s played in. 

UNC vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

So far this season, Duke and UNC have played two low-scoring matchups, even in the one that went into overtime.

• Feb. 27: 68-53 (Duke win)
• Jan. 9: 53-46 (UNC win)

Both games fell short of this total, and so far in the NCAA Tournament, we’ve seen more of the same. Duke has combined for 111 and 112 points in its two games while UNC has combined for 119 and 105.

The fact that this total is all the way in the 120s is crazy, especially since these teams rank 30th (Duke) and 37th (UNC) in the country in opponent points per game. 

UNC also isn’t the best shooting team, ranking outside the top-100 in field goal percentage this season. I expect yet another low-scoring battle between these rivals. 

Pick: UNDER 124.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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