Utah State vs. UNLV Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, Jan. 15

Reed Wallach | Jan 15, 2025

Mar 5, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; UNLV Rebels guard Dedan Thomas Jr. (11) drives past San Diego State Aztecs guard Darrion Trammell (12) in the first half at Thomas & Mack Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images / Candice Ward-Imagn Images

Utah State’s dream season continued on Saturday night in a come-from-behind home win against Boise State to improve to 16-1 on the season and 6-0 in Mountain West play. 

The Aggies will take its unbeaten record in MWC play to Las Vegas to take on UNLV, who hasn’t been able to score a signature win this season and are off of two dismal efforts resulting in blowout losses. However, oddsmakers are giving the Rebels a fair shot in this one with a small point spread. 

Can there be an upset brewing out west? Here’s how to bet on this Mountain West nightcap. 

Utah State vs. UNLV Odds, Spread and Total

Spread 

• Utah State: -5.5 (-110)
• UNLV: +5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Utah State: -235
• UNLV: +190

Total: 148.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Utah State vs. UNLV How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, January 15th
• Game Time: 11:00 PM EST
• Venue: Thomas & Mack Center
• How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
• Utah State Record: 16-1
• UNLV Record: 9-7

Utah State vs. UNLV Key Players to Watch

Utah State

Ian Martinez: Martinez hit an and-one three-pointer to lift Utah State past Boise State on Saturday. He finished the night with a team-high 18 points, including 10 points in the final five minutes. The senior guard is averaging nearly 17 points per game on the year while adding three rebounds and three assists for the surging Aggies. 

UNLV

Dedan Thomas: While UNLV slips in Mountain West play, Thomas continues to do what he can, averaging 16 points per game this season. The sophomore guard is off one of his best performances of the season at Colorado State, scoring 19 points on 61% shooting with six assists.

Utah State vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick

Utah State’s stellar record doesn’t match its analytical profile all that much, ranked 43rd in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric, as the team continues to have some positive variance late in games. The Aggies are a strong team under first-year head coach Jerrod Calhoun, but the team has won its six Mountain West games by seven points or fewer with an average margin of victory of four points. 

So, can the Aggies get margin? The team runs a zone defense on a majority of its sets which may work in doses, but I believe that UNLV has the antidote to that with elite shooting splits from the perimeter. Despite the shaky record, UNLV is shooting nearly 43% from beyond the arc in Mountain West play and 38% on the year (25th in the country). 

With a microwave-scoring guard like Thomas, I believe that the Rebels' offense can unpack the Aggies zone. 

On the other side of the floor, Utah State can dominate the glass and win the shot volume battle as a top 30 offensive rebounding group against a UNLV defense that is outside the top 300 in DREB%. However, I’m going to side with the compact Rebels defense coaxing Utah State into hoisting from deep and losing in a perimeter-based contest. 

I’ll catch the falling knife with UNLV and take them to keep it close with Utah State, which is what the team has been doing all of Mountain West play. 

PICK: UNLV +5.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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