Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Vanderbilt-Alabama matchup in Week 6 of the college football season.

Can the Vanderbilt Commodores and quarterback Diego Pavia cover as underdogs in Week 6? / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

A pair of top-25 teams in the SEC are set to face off on Saturday, as the No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide host the No. 16 Vanderbilt Commodores. 

Alabama is coming off a massive upset win over Georgia (on the road) in Week 5, and it’s sitting at 3-1 in the 2025 season with its lone loss coming to Florida State in Week 1.

Meanwhile, the Commodores are 5-0 with their most impressive win coming in Week 3 against then-No. 11 South Carolina. Vanderbilt, led by quarterback Diego Pavia, has one of the most explosive offenses in the country.

Pavia leads the SEC in passing touchdowns, and Vanderbilt is No. 4 in the country in EPA/Play on offense. The Commodores have scored at least 31 points in every game this season, but can they hang as road underdogs against Alabama?

Heisman hopeful Ty Simpson and the Crimson Tide have three straight ranked opponents on the schedule in Vandy, Missouri and Tennessee. A win on Saturday would go a long way for Alabama’s College Football Playoff chances, but it’ll need to avoid a letdown after the biggest win it’s had all season in Week 5.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this SEC showdown on Saturday. 

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Vanderbilt +10.5 (-108)
• Alabama -10.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Vanderbilt: +340
• Alabama: -440

Total

• 56.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 4 
• Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Vanderbilt record: 5-0
• Alabama record: 3-1

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Key Player to Watch

Ty Simpson, Quarterback, Alabama

Simpson has a tough test on Saturday, as he’ll aim to outduel another Heisman candidate in Pavia. The Vanderbilt offense has been one of the best in the country, but the team ranks just 88th in the country in EPA/Pass on defense, meaning Alabama’s best chance to move the ball may be through the air.

Simpson has a ton of weapons at his disposal, including star Ryan Williams, and he’s coming off a great game against Georgia where he threw for 276 yards and two scores without a single interception.

Overall this season, Simpson has completed 69.3 percent of his passes for 1,138 yards, 11 touchdowns and zero picks. He’ll look to remain interception-free in Week 6. 

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

Alabama is more battle-tested than Vanderbilt heading into this matchup, but the Commodores offense is no joke.

Pavia has led one of the best passing attacks in the country, and Vandy ranks in the top 25 in the country in several important offensive metrics: 

Vanderbilt Offensive Stats

• 494.4 Total Yards Per Game
• +0.36 EPA/Play – 4th in the country
• 54.7% Offensive Success Rate – 2nd in the country
• +0.46 EPA/Pass – 4th in the country
• +0.27 EPA/Rush – 6th in the country
• +0.30 Early Downs EPA/Play – 2nd in the country

This Vanderbilt offense should be able to keep up with Alabama, although an upset may be tough with the team’s defense ranking 88th in EPA/Play.

Alabama blew out UL Monroe and Wisconsin before the upset against Georgia, and it ranks 19th in the country in Net EPA/Play.

I think the Crimson Tide win this game at home, but I wouldn’t be shocked if these teams traded scores on Saturday, allowing Vandy to keep this game within double digits. 

Pick: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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