Vanderbilt vs. St. Mary's Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 20, 2025

March 11, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Saint Mary's Gaels center Mitchell Saxen (11) dribbles the basketball against Santa Clara Broncos guard Jake Ensminger (44) during the second half in the semifinals of the WCC Basketball Championship at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Saint Mary’s will begin its NCAA Tournament journey as the No. 7 seed in the East Region, set to face Vanderbilt from the SEC, the East Region No. 10 seed. 

The Gaels will hope to avoid an upset this time around after getting bounced in the first round, this time facing an upstart Vanderbilt team that has enjoyed a ton of success under first-year head coach Mark Byington, who won a tournament game last year with James Madison. 

Can the Commodores pull a stunner, or at least cover? We break it down for you below.

Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Vanderbilt: +4.5 (-118)
• Saint Mary’s: -4.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Vanderbilt: +155
• Saint Mary’s: -182

Total: 136.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 21st
• Game Time: 3:15 PM EST
• Venue: Rocket Arena
• How to Watch (TV): truTV
• Vanderbilt Record: 20-12
• Saint Mary’s Record: 29-5

Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s Key Players to Watch

Vanderbilt

Tyler Nickel: The Commodores forward will be relied upon heavily against Saint Mary’s drop coverage. The 6’7” wing is used primarily as a three-point threat, hitting 40% of his three-point shots on the year. Against a compact Gaels defense, Nickel will need to be hitting his perimeter shots to force the team to adjust and drag its wings out of the paint and open up driving lanes for the rest of the offense.

Saint Mary’s 

Augustas Marciulionis: The Gaels point guard will be tasked with handling the heavy ball pressure of Vanderbilt, who wants to push the pace. However, Saint Mary’s is a strictly half-court offense that the Lithuanian is the engine behind. A 39% three-point shooter in WCC play, Marciulionis will try to carry that momentum over into the NCAA Tournament while also operating as a shot creator for the rest of the offense that relentlessly puts pressure on the rim. 

Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s Prediction and Pick

This matchup pits two vastly different teams, but I side with the favorite covering the modest point spread. 

The key in this one is Saint Mary’s ability to get into its offense in the half-court against a Vanderbilt defense that lacks any size down low. The Gaels are bottom five in the country in adjusted tempo and regularly dictate the shot volume battle, posting the best rebounding percentage in the country. 

With few possessions to begin with and the fact that the team is constantly getting more shots up than its opponent, I believe that the Gaels can salt this game away. 

Vanderbilt will look to utilize guard Jason Edwards in the mid-range against the team’s drop coverage, but I’ll trust the more disciplined offense to create more efficient looks over the course of 60 minutes to cover. 

PICK: Saint Mary’s -4.5 (-102, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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