VCU vs. Dayton Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Friday, Feb. 7

Reed Wallach | Feb 7, 2025

Mar 8, 2024; Dayton, Ohio, USA; Virginia Commonwealth Rams guard Joe Bamisile (22) shoots the ball against Dayton Flyers forward Petras Padegimas (12) during the first half of the game at University of Dayton Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Lunsford-Imagn Images / Matt Lunsford-Imagn Images

Two of the top teams in the Atlantic 10 meet in conference play on Friday night. 

VCU has surged to the top of the league with an aggressive defense that has been matched with an elite offense. The Rams have used its veteran roster to unlock a devastating perimeter offense in Atlantic 10 play, which is going to be needed on the road against a talented Dayton team that has won five of its last six games. 

Here’s how to bet on this high level conference clash on Friday night. 

VCU vs. Dayton Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• VCU: -1.5 (-102)
• Dayton: +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• VCU: -110
• Dayton: -110

Total: 138.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

VCU vs. Dayton How to Watch

• Date: Friday, February 7th
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: UD Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• VCU Record: 18-5
• Dayton Record: 16-7

VCU vs. Dayton Key Players to Watch 

VCU

Joe Bamisile: The veteran guard continues to raise his play in A10 play, shooting 39% from beyond the a rc while providing elite defense in the backcourt. The Rams press-first defense has given the opposition fits, and Bamisile has been a two way monster for the first place team. 

Dayton

Malachi Smith: Smith will be tasked with handling the aggressive VCU defense. After missing the last game due to illness, it’s unclear if the lead guard can go in this high stakes tilt. If he can’t go, expect transfer guard Posh Alexander to step into the lead role. Smith has struggled to find his shot in A10 play, shooting 16% from beyond the arc, but remains a viable threat to run Dayton’s motion offense, eighth in the country in assist rate. 

VCU vs. Dayton Prediction and Pick

Smith missed the last game due to illness. While he has struggled to shoot in league play, his impact is still immense for the Flyers roster. The team scores about five points fewer per 100 possessions and allows over 14 more points per 100, according to Hoop-Explorer. 

His status is critical, but even if he does play, I believe that VCU is primed to score a road win. 

The Dayton defense has been shaky in A10 play all season. The team’s compact defense has been gashed from the perimeter, allowing teams to shoot 37% from beyond the arc, which can be exposed against the ball movement of VCU, which is shooting a healthy 35% from deep in conference games. 

The Rams rank fourth in A10 three-point rate, but are more than capable at getting inside and cleaning the glass, tops in the conference in offensive rebounding rate. 

While Dayton has solid marks against press defense, the group is sloppy with the ball overall, seventh in the conference in turnover percentage, which looms large against the best defense in the league at generating turnovers. 

Simply put, I see more avenues to success for the Rams, who may even see the market move towards them if Smith is ruled out. With that in mind, give me the slight road chalk. 

PICK: VCU ML -110 (available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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