Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Tigers Will Win AL Central Battle vs. Guardians)

Iain MacMillan | Jul 4, 2025

Bet the Tigers to beat the Guardians on Friday night. / Brad Mills-Imagn Images

There are few better ways to celebrate the Fourth of July than by placing a few bets on some baseball games, so that's exactly what we're going to do.

As expected, we have a loaded slate of games today, giving us plenty of options, but there are three specific games that I'm targeting with my best bets. Let's dive into them.

Top MLB Picks Today

• Tigers (-116) vs. Guardians via Caesars
• Orioles vs. Braves UNDER 9 (-115) via BetMGM
• Royals (-105) vs. Diamondbacks via BetMGM

Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction

I'm surprised we're able to get this price on the Tigers based on how these two teams have been trending. Not only do the Tigers have the best record in the American League, but they're also second in the Majors in OPS over the past 30 days at .803 while also batting .270. The Guardians, on the other hand, are dead last in both OPS (.602) and batting average (.204) in that time frame.

It's not like the Guardians have the advantage in starting pitching either. Reese Olson of the Tigers has the better ERA at 2.96 compared to the 2.64 mark of Slade Cecconi of the Guardians.

It's best not to overthink this bet.

Pick: Tigers -116

Orioles vs. Braves Prediction

The Braves' struggles this season aren't just bad luck. Over the past 30 days, this team is 25th in the Majors in OPS at .685. Thankfully, they'll get some pitching help tonight with Spencer Strider on the mound. He's been one of the few bright spots for the Braves this season with a solid 3.86 ERA.

You may be tempted to bet the Braves or the OVER when you see Charlie Morton and his 5.63 ERA on the mound for the Orioles, but consider the fact that Morton also has a FIP (Field Independent Pitching) of 4.42, indicating there's some positive regression in store for the Orioles' arm.

With the total set at nine, I'm going to trust the starting pitchers and fade both offenses. Give me the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 9 (-115)

Royals vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

The Kansas City Royals and Arizona Diamondbacks are set to face off in what's a lopsided pitching matchup, but even with that being the case, it's the team with the better starter that's set as the slight underdog.

Kris Bubic (2.25 ERA) of the Royals will take on Eduardo Rodriguez (5.13 ERA) of the Diamondbacks. It's not just the starters that sway heavily in favor of the Royals. Kansas City's bullpen ranks sixth in bullpen ERA at 3.54, while the Diamondbacks come in at 28th at 5.26.

The Diamondbacks' bats aren't nearly good enough to make up for the advantage the Royals have on the mound tonight. I'll bet Kansas City at -105.

Pick: Royals -105

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!