Warriors vs. Rockets Game 5 Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets (Can Golden State End Series)

The Warriors are underdogs in Game 5 despite holding a 3-1 series lead.

The Warriors are underdogs in Game 5 despite holding a 3-1 series lead. / Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler and the Golden State Warriors are just one win away from advancing to the second round of the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference after a hard-fought win on Monday night over the Houston Rockets.

Houston nearly evened the series after riding its two-big lineup of Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun, but the Rockets’ offense stumbled in the final few possessions to allow Golden State to take a 3-1 series lead.

It’s been pretty simple for Houston: When Jalen Green plays poorly, the Rockets are going to struggle. Green has seven, eight and nine points in the three losses in this series and 38 points in Houston’s lone win.

For a veteran team that has dealt with some injury issues as of late (Curry’s thumb, Butler’s pelvic contusion), the Warriors would love to win Game 5 to give themselves as much rest as possible before the second round.

However, oddsmakers see this matchup reaching a sixth game, as Houston is favored by four points on Wednesday night.

Let’s break down how this series has gone through four games, plus my best bet and the latest odds for Game 5. 

Warriors vs. Rockets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Warriors +4 (-108)
• Rockets -4 (-112)

Moneyline

• Warriors: +160
• Rockets: -192

Total

• 204.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Warriors vs. Rockets How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, April 30
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Toyota Center
• How to Watch (TV):  TNT
• Series: Warriors lead 3-1

Warriors vs. Rockets Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

• Jimmy Butler – probable
• Steph Curry – available
• Gary Payton II – available

Rockets Injury Report

• Jae’Sean Tate – out

Warriors vs. Rockets Best NBA Prop Bets

Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Draymond Green UNDER 8.5 Points (-125)

This postseason (including the Warriors play-in tournament win), Draymond Green has not scored over eight points in a single game. 

In addition to that, the four-time champion has just one game where he’s attempted more than seven shots, which really limits his ceiling in this market. Green isn’t a scorer anyway, and if Houston plays more of its two-big lineup, it really starts to take away from him getting baskets at the rim.

I’ll fade Green – who will do just about everything else – as a scorer in Game 5. 

Houston Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Amen Thompson OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-154)

I’m shocked to see this line so low for Thompson, who averaged 8.2 rebounds per game in the regular season and has at least seven boards in three of the four games in this series.

Houston has relied on the former lottery pick to play a major role as the primary Steph Curry defender, and he’s continued to hit the glass – as all of the Rockets have – in this series.

The only game that Thompson failed to clear this line came in Game 2 when he was limited to just 22 minutes due to foul trouble. 

Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared my favorite bet for this matchup in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – for SI Betting:

It’s never a good sign in a playoff series when your best offense is missing a shot.

Unfortunately, that is the case for the Rockets, who have dominated the boards but can’t seem to make enough shots to beat the Warriors.

Houston enters Game 5 in 14th (out of 16 playoff teams) in effective field goal percentage and 12th in offensive rating. After watching the Rockets take Game 2, some NBA bettors may have felt like there was a path to Houston winning this series, but that has become rather unrealistic.

In that Game 2 win, Jalen Green scored 38 points and made eight shots from beyond the arc for the Rockets. In the other three games? Well, he has 24 total points and two made 3-pointers.

That’s not going to get it done, and now Houston has to deal with Jimmy Butler (27 points in Game 4) being back in the lineup for Golden State. 

While the Warriors aren’t looking great offensively either, they have two of the best closers in the Game in Butler and Steph Curry. Meanwhile, Houston was dead last in the NBA in clutch-time field goal percentage in the regular season. 

I’ll gladly take the points with Golden State in this game, as it may be able to close things out in Houston.  

Pick: Warriors +4 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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