Warriors vs. Timberwolves Opening Series Odds, Prediction and Preview (Minnesota Favored)

The Minnesota Timberwolves are favored to beat the Golden State Warriors in the second round of the playoffs.

The Timberwolves are -175 to win their series with Golden State. / David Gonzales-Imagn Images

The final matchup of the second round is officially set after Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors won Game 7 against the Houston Rockets on Sunday night to advance.

Now, Golden State will be on the road against the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 after the No. 6-seeded Wolves knocked off the Los Angeles Lakers in just five games.

After making the Western Conference Finals last season, Minnesota is favored to win this series, making the Warriors underdogs in a playoff series for the first time in over 10 years. 

The Golden State Warriors (+155 vs. T’Wolves) are underdogs in an NBA Playoff series for the first time in more than 10 years.

They were last underdogs before a series began in Round 1 of 2014 postseason (+170 vs. the Clippers, lost in 7)

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) May 5, 2025

These teams played four times in the regular season, but all four of those matchups came before the Jimmy Butler trade. Still, Golden State went 3-1 in those games. However, both of these teams found a new form after the All-Star break, and Minnesota ended up fourth in the NBA in net rating during the regular season.

So, we should be in line for a great matchup with a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line.

Here’s a look at the series odds, correct score odds, and my prediction for this Western Conference matchup. 

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Series Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Golden State: +150
• Minnesota: -175

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Correct Score Odds

• Timberwolves in 7: +350
• Timberwolves in 5: +400
• Warriors in 6: +475
• Timberwolves in 6: +550
• Timberwolves in 4: +650
• Warriors in 7: +700
• Warriors in 5: +1000
• Warriors in 4: +1600

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Series Preview

These two teams were two of the best in the NBA on the defensive end of the floor after the All-Star break, and that continued into the first round as Golden State held the Houston offense in check while the Wolves dominated LeBron James and Luka Doncic.

There are a few things to watch for in this matchup, starting with the size advantage that Minnesota possesses for the second straight series.

Against the Lakers, the Wolves dominated on the glass and down low, using Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels, and others to attack the basket. The Lakers lacked any rim protection at all, but things are a little different with Golden State. While the Warriors don’t have a traditional shot blocker at the rim, they do have one of the game’s best defenders of all time in Draymond Green.

Golden State – as it showed against Houston – isn’t going to deviate from small-ball lineups often. So, Rudy Gobert could be an impact player for the Wolves if he’s able to stay on the floor and impact the offensive glass.

This is also an interesting series for Mike Conley, as the Wolves love to have him as a veteran presence on offense, but he may end up getting hunted by Curry and Butler in switches. 

For Golden State, someone is going to have to step up scoring the ball (like Buddy Hield did in Game 7) outside of Curry and Butler. Minnesota was a top-five offense in the first round and finished the regular season in the top 10 in the NBA in offensive and defensive rating.

Meanwhile, 97 percent of Golden State’s points in Game 7 against Houston came from its starters, and Steve Kerr doesn’t have many options in his rotation for instant offense outside of Curry, Butler, and Hield (when he’s on).

Plus, Golden State may have to move Hield to the bench to match up better with Edwards, as it lacks an elite perimeter defender in the starting lineup when Hield is out there. Gary Payton II or Moses Moody could draw the Edwards assignment in this series.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

Can Edwards, who has knocked off Kevin Durant, LeBron, and Nikola Jokic over the last two seasons, beat another living legend in the playoffs? 

I’m buying him and the Timberwolves, who have been playing at a high level ever since Julius Randle returned from an injury early on in 2025. 

Minnesota has a great counter to the Warriors’ small-ball attack, as it can play Randle or Reid at the No. 5 spot, and both players have the offensive ability to extend the Golden State defense. Unlike Houston, which struggled to score the ball in the first round, ranking ninth in offensive rating, the Wolves posted an offensive rating of 116.7, good for fifth in the league in the first round. 

Edwards is a better scorer than anyone the Rockets had, and Golden State has a little less depth than the Wolves when it comes to scoring options.

Now, Curry, Butler, and Green have done everything that we expected from three future Hall of Famers to carry this team, but I don’t think the Warriors have enough offense to win this series. 

They’re going to pick off a few games, but ultimately, Minnesota slowed down LeBron, Luka, and Austin Reaves in the first round with relative ease. Curry and Butler are a little different, but the Wolves have shown they can keep an elite offense in check. 

I’ll back Minnesota to take this series, although it may go the distance because of the Warriors’ playoff experience. 

Pick: Timberwolves to win the series, Timberwolves in 7 (+350 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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