Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 1

The Golden State Warriors are underdogs in their series with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Warriors are underdogs in Game 1 in Minnesota. / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Anthony Edwards vs. Steph Curry with a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line?

That’s what bettors and NBA fans can look forward to on Tuesday night, as Game 1 of the best-of-seven series between the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves gets underway.

Minnesota has been able to rest for a bit after a 4-1 series win over the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round, and despite being the No. 6 seed in the West, the Wolves have home court in this series.

That’s because the No. 7-seeded Warriors knocked off the No. 2-seeded Houston Rockets, although they needed seven games to get it done. Golden State is now on a quick turnaround for Game 1 in Minnesota after winning on Sunday night.

Oddsmakers have set the Wolves as 6.5-point favorites in this game, but they did drop three of their four meetings with Golden State in the regular season.

Who has the edge in this series opener?

Let’s break down the odds, players to bet in the prop market and my prediction for this Western Conference battle. 

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Warriors +6.5 (-110)
• Timberwolves -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Warriors: +210
• Timberwolves: -258

Total

• 208.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Warriors vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, May 6
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Series: Tied 0-0

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

• Steph Curry – available
• Gary Payton II – questionable

Timberwolves Injury Report

• Rob Dillingham – out

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets

Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Brandin Podziemski OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-180)

Brandin Podziemski is one of the few role players that Steve Kerr seems to trust on a night-to-night basis, and his shooting and ball-handling are vital for this Warriors attack.

This postseason, Podz has made two or more shots from beyond the arc in four of seven games, shooting 34.1 percent from deep on 6.3 attempts per game. He’s going to get looks from downtown in this offense, especially if Minnesota sells out to slow down Curry and Butler.

Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

• Julius Randle OVER 20.5 Points (-110)

This postseason, Randle has been awesome for Minnesota, averaging 22.6 points per game while scoring 22 or more points in each of the final four games of the first-round matchup with the Lakers.

Randle is an issue for the Warriors, as he’s a bigger forward that can put his head down and go to the rim. The Lakers’ lack of rim protection killed them against Minnesota, and I’m worried the Warriors don’t have the bodies to keep Randle out of the paint.

Plus, Randle’s usage has been pretty huge – he’s taking 15.8 shots per game – and he’s been efficient. The three-time All-Star is shooting 48.1 percent from the field and 39.3 percent from 3 in the playoffs.  

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the OVER is the bet to make in Game 1: 

This is going to be an interesting Game 1, as the Warriors have beaten the Timberwolves in three of the four meetings between these teams, but none of them came with Jimmy Butler in Golden State. 

Rather than betting a side – since Golden State is on short rest after a Game 7 – I’m looking to the total in this series opener.

Minnesota has been one of the best OVER teams in the NBA at home, going 26-17 this season. On top of that, three of the four meetings between these squads in the regular season went over this total. 

Golden State’s offense struggled in the first round, but Minnesota doesn’t possess as many elite wing defenders as Houston to deal with Steph Curry. While there are some, Curry has shown he’s pretty much matchup proof this postseason.

The Wolves also finished with a top-five offensive rating in the first round of the playoffs, and I think they’ll be able to take advantage of the Warriors’ lack of rim protection and rebounding.

This number is a little too low for two teams that have a lot of offensive firepower, something Houston lacked against the Warriors in the first round. 

Pick: OVER 208.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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