White Sox vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, June 11

Sean Treppedi | Jun 11, 2025

Sean Burke's recent consistency points us to taking the solid value on his earned runs prop against the Astros on Wednesday. / Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

The White Sox took a win away from the Astros in their series opener in Houston on Tuesday. 

The underdogs won 4-2 off of six excellent innings from Shane Smith and a big offensive night from Luis Robert Jr. that included an RBI double and a home run. Chicago’s bullpen held down the fort with closer Brandon Eisert recording his second save of the year. 

Chicago has been showing a pulse in the last week, having won four of its last five games. 

Now the Sox turn to Sean Burke (3-6, 4.03 ERA) who will face Houston rookie Ryan Gusto (3-3, 4.78 ERA). 

We’ll look at a player prop and a game prediction you can consider for Wednesday’s follow-up meeting at Daikin Park. 

White Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• White Sox +1.5 (-152)
• Astros -1.5 (+126)

Moneyline

• White Sox (+140)
• Astros (-166)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-110)
• Under 8.5 (-110)

White Sox vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

• White Sox: Sean Burke (3-6, 4.03 ERA)
• Astros: Ryan Gusto (3-3, 4.78 ERA)

White Sox vs. Astros How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, June 11, 2025
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Daikin Park
• How to Watch (TV): Space City Home Network, CHSN
• White Sox Record: 23-44
• Astros Record: 36-30

White Sox vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bet

•  Sean Burke Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+105 at BetMGM)

I’ll take the plus-money value on a guy who has crept above this line only once in his last seven starts. Oh yeah, and he plays for a team with a No. 4 defensive efficiency rating and is bottom of the barrel across every standard batting metric. Burke has had some luck indicated by his 5.31 xERA, but he is effective in getting soft contact, which offsets a power hitting Astros lineup well. Some of his recent consistency has come from changing up his pitch usage a bit, reverting to a change up that’s getting a 33% whiff rate while his slider has skyrocketed to 43%. 

White Sox vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Most of Houston’s offensive success has come against left-handed pitching. With righties, it’s only churning out 97 wRC+ per FanGraphs, which as mentioned above, makes me fade them on producing a big day against Burke. Burke has poor season-long numbers but has shown recent improvement with three straight quality starts after adjusting his pitch mix. He’s allowed two-or-less runs in all of those outings while having pitched at least six innings. 

While he should be primed for another deep start on Wednesday, Astros starter Ryan Gusto’s underlying metrics say he has been unlucky as he settles into the rotation, reflecting a 4.48 xERA. His seven-pitch arsenal has a few options that feature healthy Stuff+ per FanGraphs, including his most primary pitch in his fastball. 

Pick:  Under 8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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